Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x361346697adc8f92e3d033488d778bc845e716184ab70a1b756b00fbd84ec5aa

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $481,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $271,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,118 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f9…a3c5backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	4c	21,067$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.9	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	11,188$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.59	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	11,110$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2514…af36backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	9,211$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.5	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	4c	8,682$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.82	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	15c	6,747$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	6,333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	6,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	5,224$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.16	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	6c	4,914$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.26	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,741$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.36	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	7c	4,139$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.68	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	3,928$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.69	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23a3…8ce7backed Yes	1c	3,878$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes	7c	3,339$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.02	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,238$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.54	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	5c	3,238$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	6c	3,223$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.85	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,700$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.34	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes	2c	2,615$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	2,460$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.4	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	2,385$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.18	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745f…e29dbacked Yes	1c	2,073$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	3c	1,863$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,691$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.98	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	7c	1,673$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	12c	1,670$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	1,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.7	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes	2c	1,480$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	7c	1,431$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	2c	1,353$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	10c	1,252$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,251$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x665d…5bd3backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-69%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	1,014$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.99	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	7c	1,005$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.35	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	8c	1,003$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.51	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	999.94$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	10c	988.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	5c	974.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	966.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	949.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x666f…1bb2backed Yes	12c	880.27$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	797.31$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.88	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	764.4$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.09	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	7c	743.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718e…9549backed Yes	3c	711.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	710$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	651$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	650.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	3c	650$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe723…403cbacked Yes	4c	616.57$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	8c	608.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	5c	599.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8232…5992backed Yes	12c	598.96$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…f808backed Yes	14c	577.37$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	564.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	2c	557.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…82e8backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	4c	515.66$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	8c	486.86$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	6c	480.37$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8663…3fffbacked Yes	12c	429.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	428.84$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.15	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a8…62c9backed Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes	8c	426.79$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	106	23.6%25 W · 81 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	425$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f17…7c80backed Yes	9c	422.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+111.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	7c	401.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.73	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	7c	400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…0bc9backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	13cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	385.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	7c	372.03$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.61	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes	8c	362.75$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	12c	361$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.32	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	7c	350$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x867c…893abacked Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe7…b0e5backed Yes	9c	336.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	7c	325.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	12c	324.03$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	8c	323.38$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes	11c	318.18$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ee…6cf2backed Yes	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event