Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97e1ae8befc8632f845726b15ff41f966667261b8ac83f2732e5b7326713882f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $747,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $388,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,124 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	40,767$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.24	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	19,213$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	18,333$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.54	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	16,543$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	5c	14,181$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.71	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	13,501$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.17	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,241$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	12,439$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	12,238$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	11,749$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.91	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	11,360$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.5	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	10,376$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	9,001$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.02	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	0c	8,631$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.85	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,973$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	7,853$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	7,853$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	8c	7,544$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	5,486$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3f…3526backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…a272backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf03e…40cfbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b5…e1ecbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	3c	4,155$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.07	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x012d…8d36backed Yes	0c	3,970$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	3,845$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	3,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes	2c	3,314$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.18	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	3,308$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.88	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	4c	3,053$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.91	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	2,969$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.44	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	6c	2,870$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.47	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,846$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.85	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	2,805$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.69	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	8c	2,800$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.03	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	4c	2,542$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.01	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	9c	2,499$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.68	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	2,350$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.3	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	2,212$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.32	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	2,076$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.43	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,050$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.23	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.15	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	4c	2,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.09	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	6c	2,000$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.8	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	2c	1,900$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,873$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,808$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.17	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	4c	1,702$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.6	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	4c	1,578$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,571$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	3c	1,570$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.87	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	1,533$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	1,500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	1,500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	1,442$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.66	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,437$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	3c	1,412$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,390$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	9c	1,366$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.05	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	1,356$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.44	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	1c	1,331$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	8c	1,269$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	8c	1,230$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	1,224$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,220$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,213$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	3c	1,145$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.92	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…9b8bbacked Yes	1c	1,136$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	1,118$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91c…985ebacked Yes	5c	1,109$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.88	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	5c	986.79$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	6c	980$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.17	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	7c	930.8$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.67	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…4e78backed Yes	6c	913.75$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.6	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	909.25$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.44	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	831.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd5…d861backed Yes	2c	804.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	20%7 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	801.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes	3c	774.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	6c	731.92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.67	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68fe…ef80backed Yes	2c	687.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	665.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.47	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	8c	647.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	3c	629.41$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	6c	617.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	3c	611.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	599.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes	3c	579$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5701…f43dbacked Yes	4c	511.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	6c	505.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	502.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfde9…1ad9backed Yes	8c	500.12$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event