Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc02d9ff14d3d5ca259bc24d8cf4aa424b94343eadcce6424dc780a3b747108

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $653,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $205,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,460 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	50,500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	45,000$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.22	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	21,202$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.85	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	17,056$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	16,319$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	13,373$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,575$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	11,451$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.29	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	10,536$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	10,514$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	0c	9,066$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.69	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	8,321$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.1	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	7,799$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	6,011$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.17	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	5c	5,896$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,887$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	3c	5,197$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.31	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff26…c6e9backed Yes	4c	4,992$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,692$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	4,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	3c	3,544$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.59	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	3,144$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.48	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	4c	3,000$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	2,970$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.52	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	2,818$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.47	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes	2c	2,761$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.53	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,471$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.42	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	2,442$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	2,425$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.15	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	2,359$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,300$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.88	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes	6c	2,230$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.62	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,113$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.91	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,110$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.39	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,079$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	2,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	4c	1,908$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	3c	1,745$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,671$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	1,595$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.1	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	6c	1,584$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,550$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,503$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,500$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	1,348$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,293$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	6c	1,238$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.55	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	4c	1,114$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes	4c	1,049$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	3c	1,032$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	1,008$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	1c	999.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	929.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Yes	3c	900$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	7c	899.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	4c	898.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f80…7a52backed Yes	3c	895.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	3c	840$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	826.41$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	3c	799.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes	3c	779.5$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	745$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.15	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	3c	652.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	649.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	621.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…a669backed Yes	4c	620.02$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb928…db56backed Yes	5c	612.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes	3c	571.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	136	14.7%20 W · 116 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	6c	570$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5701…f43dbacked Yes	3c	561.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	4c	550.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.64	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	3c	549.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	3c	502.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…177cbacked Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+171.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes	6c	499.95$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5737…5fbabacked Yes	6c	478.43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	7cpaid	+455.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	451.94$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	4c	415.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	4c	402.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	4c	400.34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	400.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	3c	399.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	3c	396.68$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	3c	377.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540a…41aebacked Yes	7c	362.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	5c	349.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf084…4b0ebacked Yes	3c	349.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…5f3fbacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb162…10a6backed Yes	4c	296.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event