Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78e8ee04498e3f002d1b4e82a4d4e340d8e27597519eb0801101cf6e20073fb

Rebuilt 15 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $512,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $287,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $512,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8154…3634backed Yes	1c	16,515$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.57	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	14,554$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,998$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	13,115$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	8,916$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.3	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	6,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,323$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,983$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,886$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,682$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	1c	4,300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	0c	4,280$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,647$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	2,498$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.69	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,181$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	1c	2,132$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	2,045$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	2c	2,002$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,776$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes	2c	1,752$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.09	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	1c	1,635$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.67	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c7…f37bbacked Yes	1c	1,399$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	1c	1,249$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	1c	1,233$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes	1c	1,219$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d7…5487backed Yes	1c	1,054$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	934.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	2c	763.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	739.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes	2c	699.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	477.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event