Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9853bea3118313497d1490ed846953e3cc498999de0be272511fd0ae4938d8

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $762,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $469,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,429 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2f85…1c4cbacked Yes	0c	37,804$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c6debacked Yes	0c	37,189$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	24,990$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…3453backed Yes	0c	16,556$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	15,906$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.52	1,809	7.4%133 W · 1,676 L	-24.7wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	15,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	14c	13,886$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	12,332$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.37	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	6c	12,102$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.3	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	10,181$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.91	1,096	8.2%90 W · 1,006 L	+28.7wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	8c	9,000$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.47	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	7,174$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.2	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f098backed Yes	0c	6,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	9c	5,923$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.87	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	5,491$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.22	608	27.8%169 W · 439 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	8c	5,102$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.01	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,962$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.74	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,425$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.42	2,589	13.1%340 W · 2,249 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	4,303$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.78	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	7c	4,142$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.9	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,966$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	10c	3,000$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.27	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	10c	2,922$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.11	239	18%43 W · 196 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	2,914$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.37	354	12.7%45 W · 309 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	2,450$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.46	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x745f…e29dbacked Yes	2c	2,404$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	10c	2,291$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.51	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	2,200$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254	467	11.3%53 W · 414 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	74	12.2%9 W · 65 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	2,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,968$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.76	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	1,800$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.5	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	14c	1,744$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	7c	1,740$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.88	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	10c	1,625$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.21	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes	2c	1,530$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,514$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.63	898	18.8%169 W · 729 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,490$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.07	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	3c	1,456$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	276	7.2%20 W · 256 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+81.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	1c	1,439$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe723…403cbacked Yes	3c	1,386$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	6c	1,359$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.89	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	7c	1,309$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.69	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	15c	1,298$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	2c	1,282$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.38	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	12c	1,244$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	1c	1,076$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	11c	1,074$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.77	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	10c	1,003$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f2…5e9cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0568…f532backed Yes	12c	1,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.81	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	999.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	800	8.8%70 W · 730 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	11c	936.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	10c	933.93$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.26	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	11c	900$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.09	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	878.02$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.22	837	14.9%125 W · 712 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	810$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	911	10.2%93 W · 818 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	800$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	12c	766.93$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	758.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	7c	720.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	13c	703.59$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	12c	699.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	5c	699.73$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	492	19.5%96 W · 396 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes	6c	694.44$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…19c8backed Yes	11c	654.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91c…985ebacked Yes	7c	646.97$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.84	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…e1dfbacked Yes	12c	624.38$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.69	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2e…41eabacked Yes	3c	600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	136	14.7%20 W · 116 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	599.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	6c	595.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	586.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	574	8.2%47 W · 527 L	+12.9wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	2c	555.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	552.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	903	17.1%154 W · 749 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	549.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	1,219	8.7%106 W · 1,113 L	+32.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b05…ad87backed Yes	13c	530.75$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes	10c	498.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2d…d7cebacked Yes	15c	496.94$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	6c	496.57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.17	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ac…7784backed Yes	2c	475.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	11c	474.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5c…d622backed Yes	3c	469.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4532…6041backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8663…3fffbacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	5c	408.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	6c	408.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	191	20.4%39 W · 152 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event