Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89c89155a37e6fd44083f6b352e2637f76c88593a96c7278b7bfdcfb75e4e29

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $419,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $228,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,642 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	2c	12,290$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.05	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	11,441$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.04	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes	1c	10,423$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,097$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedb8…f85ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2514…af36backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	6,000$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.11	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…3d35backed Yes	4c	5,223$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.27	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,122$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	6c	4,889$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.48	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,796$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,368$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,280$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	4,192$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.79	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef3b…4af5backed Yes	7c	3,739$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,622$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	3,466$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.18	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	3,423$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.36	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	3,219$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	7c	3,074$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,987$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes	1c	2,658$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce5a…0a70backed Yes	0c	2,623$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+152.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	3c	2,601$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.42	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa4…52a5backed Yes	6c	2,517$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+107.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	2c	2,435$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	2,406$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.47	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	2,020$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x665d…5bd3backed Yes	5c	1,958$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-69%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	4c	1,934$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.75	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes	8c	1,804$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	6c	1,764$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	5c	1,644$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	5c	1,538$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes	7c	1,512$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes	7c	1,502$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.61	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	5c	1,500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	7c	1,498$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,453$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.98	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	3c	1,432$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	2c	1,367$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.15	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	1,219$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.19	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,185$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.05	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	9c	1,134$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	1,127$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes	4c	1,100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	3c	1,100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.24	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	3c	1,082$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.48	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	5c	1,050$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8232…5992backed Yes	6c	1,045$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	2c	1,042$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.26	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,020$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,012$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	7c	1,004$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd8…f0c2backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	2c	999.74$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.92	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	969.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	6c	880.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	858.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	2c	839.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	824$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	3c	815.58$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	815.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…b0e5backed Yes	6c	789.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7f…cccdbacked Yes	5c	785.4$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a8…62c9backed Yes	4c	742.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	734.08$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	724.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	706.13$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	677.73$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c6…61fbbacked Yes	5c	646.54$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.66	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes	3c	625$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e1…4cc0backed Yes	3c	597.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	3c	591.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	6c	566.54$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	520.12$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x867c…893abacked Yes	6c	510$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	3c	499.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	499.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8663…3fffbacked Yes	10c	477.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	465.37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	3c	450$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes	7c	444.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	444.63$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	2c	439.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ee…6cf2backed Yes	6c	422.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	421.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	5c	417.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	4c	380.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b57…5975backed Yes	6c	370$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab4…bcfbbacked Yes	6c	343.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	3c	341.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Yes	4c	339.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	4c	337.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes	6c	328.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event