TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x665d…5bd3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+66.5%+$66.5
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+61.6%+$61.57
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$67.3
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,059Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+37.3%+$395.36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$163.2
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-77.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Spurs vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Pacers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$708.34
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Nets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.85
Pistons vs. Sunsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinebacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Nets vs. Sunsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. 76ersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Kings vs. Knicksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$110
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+40.4%+$242.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (W)backed UC Irvine Anteaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.