TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Nets, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,908,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,183,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,908,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 799 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets26c369,726$95,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,100.8851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns74c96,015$70,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,319.691,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns74c50,000$37,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,90059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns75c49,399$37,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,214.672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns75c48,983$36,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,369.492,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns75c40,661$30,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,366.431,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Suns73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,80023257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Nets45c39,385$17,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,723.1822457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets25c38,041$9,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,397.622,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns75c35,507$26,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,017.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns74c34,120$25,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,731.524,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns75c33,947$25,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,502.154,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Suns78c33,572$26,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,343.9327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nets22c30,846$6,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,911.411,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nets24c30,693$7,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,366.271,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Suns74c30,000$22,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Nets0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Suns73c22,903$16,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,126.819560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nets25c20,032$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Suns74c20,000$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Nets25c20,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.9831445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Nets26c19,999$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.7414243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Suns75c18,627$14,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,590.3448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Nets56c17,885$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.8421944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Nets25c17,525$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.8934654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Nets1c16,862$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.621,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Nets26c16,097$4,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,185.176841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets26c15,677$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,030.454,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Suns59c15,492$9,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,334.261,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Suns75c15,050$11,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,762.523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Suns74c15,015$11,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Nets26c15,012$3,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,903.1220551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns75c15,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,75019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns75c14,392$10,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,582.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nets12c13,390$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.531,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Suns75c12,737$9,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.3317162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets48c12,648$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.013,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Nets24c12,273$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.6245850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Suns73c11,669$8,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.5639842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Suns74c11,400$8,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9647468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Suns75c11,200$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80019653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Suns75c10,632$7,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.0227747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Suns75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Suns75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50010236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Nets27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Nets25c8,707$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.741,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns68c8,623$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.488,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Suns75c8,055$6,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.713,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Nets25c8,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00025753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Suns76c7,524$5,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.761,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Suns75c7,500$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,87513148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d75…c09fbacked Suns76c7,368$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.422334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8925…0d79backed Suns76c6,919$5,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.631070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns60c6,606$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.275,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Suns62c6,272$3,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,408.548956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Nets23c6,103$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.1450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nets19c6,037$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.023,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Nets24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Nets25c5,627$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.550838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Suns78c5,415$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.4516863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nets9c5,273$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Nets0c5,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215523.6%13 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Nets26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Nets28c4,800$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33639744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Nets24c4,695$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.8127424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Suns36c4,532$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.7615250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Suns75c4,500$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1253565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns77c4,355$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.6559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Nets24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Nets24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Nets8c3,745$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9935326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns74c3,721$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.335251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Suns76c3,701$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.745,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Nets14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.943246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Suns76c3,500$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8508041.3%33 W · 47 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9772…4867backed Suns35c3,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b69…a9f2backed Nets28c3,485$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.763452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Nets31c3,270$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns76c3,113$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.341,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Suns76c3,067$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.0752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Nets25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Suns75c3,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Suns74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7802646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Suns74c2,957$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.8562347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Nets24c2,935$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Nets20c2,930$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5519434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Suns76c2,926$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.6827758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Suns75c2,840$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5057…cf88backed Nets24c2,800$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf49…e7f4backed Nets25c2,796$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.044168.3%28 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc4…a439backed Nets24c2,544$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6819547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets11c2,512$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.121,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Nets24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Suns75c2,491$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.6521440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Nets50c2,450$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.424752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Suns75c2,400$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.0186641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Suns75c2,307$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.7162351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Nets25c2,300$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5751225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns74c2,300$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.013,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.