TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7871…3364backed Yes51c37,947$19,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,594.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3e…8af2backed Yes66c12,066$7,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,081.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x353b…424ebacked No49c9,786$4,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,795.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c4…bcb2backed No49c9,748$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes65c9,366$6,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.592951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2a…d21cbacked No49c9,229$4,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,522.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425a…8094backed No49c9,184$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed No22c8,432$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No31c7,577$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.2916250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78cf…6481backed No10c5,900$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c5,018$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.94673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed Yes74c4,629$3,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.315554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No45c4,372$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.961225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes62c4,265$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No11c3,698$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.771643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+189.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes48c3,343$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.321735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb772…0131backed Yes73c3,280$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes80c2,464$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed No33c2,316$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No27c2,280$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.635944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578a…8cf0backed Yes74c2,210$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.171566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes71c2,143$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.411040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd98b…c7ffbacked Yes45c2,111$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No36c2,034$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.931711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes63c1,999$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.3214661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16e0…ad22backed No2c1,833$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes55c1,812$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,758$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No26c1,744$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.494930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Yes78c1,700$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes75c1,692$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No4c1,650$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No4c1,638$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c1,510$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.5210517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No34c1,478$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.292927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked No7c1,350$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0372…4914backed Yes73c1,339$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No5c1,176$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.35714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c1,174$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.341074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No6c1,155$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.671010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No46c1,134$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.46746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No46c1,061$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.832934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes67c1,016$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.773935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No7c989.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No57c928$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.961435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes56c888.39$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.13540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked Yes65c884.8$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.22580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+136.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No4c859.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.66339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3720…92d8backed No4c825.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed Yes50c812.48$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No12c751$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.988739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1359…6fdcbacked Yes68c740.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes71c649.02$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.22988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2581127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes76c599.99$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+512.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No9c588.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.273710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes59c584.99$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.457145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4292…a0c7backed No2c579.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e98…5bf8backed Yes69c577.79$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No37c563.21$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.916451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed No26c559.03$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes72c554.18$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.171050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No18c550$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9960%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed No43c542.38$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.223847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b0…a994backed Yes41c491.57$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed No16c481.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes66c468.84$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0353…4a63backed Yes65c467.46$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…7372backed No7c458$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No49c445.35$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No12c444.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.772138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No3c432.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.831127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+124.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes54c428.49$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966a…6d73backed No59c423.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c412.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.895311.3%6 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c410.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.837710.4%8 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+216.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes61c398.39$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes65c377.87$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c8c3backed Yes73c364.73$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes45c358.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.855100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+107.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes72c350$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes63c340.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes65c338.65$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.54650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd0…49d8backed Yes66c326.5$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.85520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-69.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2f6…cbf3backed Yes65c308.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No6c305.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No7c299.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes71c299.96$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+169.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No6c297$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+247.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes76c296.58$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed No4c288.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No26c286.19$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.241513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No27c275.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.615836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes75c266.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes46c263.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.