TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes24c13,467$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.4916250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes19c10,385$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes26c8,283$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes22c7,136$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.511442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes21c5,000$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.984930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Yes26c4,756$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes47c4,688$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.881225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed No70c4,397$3,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.132951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes30c3,998$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.221711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes2c3,547$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe977…f265backed Yes3c3,177$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c3,098$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.69673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes5c2,959$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.231643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+189.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes9c2,918$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be4…009abacked Yes31c2,573$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes25c2,570$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.1814661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No76c2,392$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.625944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No78c2,324$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes13c2,240$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.91442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes37c2,004$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.782828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,918$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.984629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes31c1,901$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.561145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes4c1,850$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No55c1,701$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.681735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0df…f821backed Yes22c1,700$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes26c1,696$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.926746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes22c1,673$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.645343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+75.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No69c1,630$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.072934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes30c1,500$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes28c1,479$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.713935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes56c1,473$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0be3…9fb2backed Yes36c1,422$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes26c1,402$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes26c1,275$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.051040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,224$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.161074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed Yes39c1,160$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x578a…8cf0backed No77c1,118$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.221566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a9d…e847backed Yes1c1,116$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b0…a994backed Yes17c1,070$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.76650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No71c1,058$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+169.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1e2…2213backed Yes16c1,039$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ec…b17abacked Yes25c1,033$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+196.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c994.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.74695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cec…fe64backed Yes5c993.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes6c936.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.121513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes37c865.52$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.227145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes9c815.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.416339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c74…e7c8backed Yes4c813.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No70c813.22$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.46825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c805.84$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.146451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c749.75$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0610517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21e9…a47fbacked Yes3c747.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked Yes32c663.42$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.95580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+136.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No62c647.7$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…7a8cbacked Yes10c635.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2147…a818backed Yes27c634.24$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes52c617$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.597844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No73c580.72$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8224732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No75c563.09$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.415836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…c0f4backed Yes30c562.4$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ea…d9babacked Yes45c550$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e06…f72bbacked Yes14c550$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d39…9b8dbacked Yes45c530$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes35c523$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745c…15fcbacked Yes60c498.1$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ea…d2c7backed Yes20c497.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c488.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.053724.3%9 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No68c488.12$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed No54c469$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde3a…a787backed Yes12c464$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf365…f5e3backed Yes19c457.6$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842f…9444backed Yes14c451.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2e…6c83backed Yes21c445.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x966a…6d73backed No51c438.57$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c437.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.953710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes42c435$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.398739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb4c…9f09backed Yes45c430$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10f…c7dfbacked Yes13c419.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed Yes21c416.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes25c410.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.082718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa64…09bebacked Yes22c402.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+247.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f7…57dbbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa5…6050backed Yes25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes3c399.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e4…2101backed Yes14c393.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No63c391.83$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.631968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No66c382.89$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c2…a6e0backed Yes23c380.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…fb20backed No78c379.15$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked Yes48c376.08$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.181656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa4…c52abacked No67c374.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe64…190ebacked No55c370$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d8…2542backed Yes11c368.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecd…00dbbacked Yes3c367.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…8bf8backed Yes37c349.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No75c345.51$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.751457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.