TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Lakers, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,068 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers56c1,703$954 inWon+$748.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Cavaliers57c800$456 inWon+$3447153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Lakers43c800$344 inLost-$3448744.8%39 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Lakers44c660$290 inLost-$290.443052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Lakers45c406.69$183 inLost-$183.015048%24 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0635…5cb5backed Lakers45c332.69$150 inLost-$149.711861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers55c222.22$122 inWon+$1002,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers45c222.22$100 inLost-$10026545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665d…5bd3backed Lakers47c212.77$100 inLost-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-77.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Lakers36c210$75 inLost-$755538.2%21 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Cavaliers55c200$109 inWon+$919833.7%33 W · 65 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers59c189.73$112 inLost-$111.944,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers53c106.06$56 inWon+$49.852,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Cavaliers56c100$56 inWon+$4463555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Cavaliers55c80.5$44 inWon+$36.0866646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Lakers42c78.09$33 inLost-$32.818339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09c7…f049backed Lakers45c73.76$33 inLost-$33.191050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba77…da86backed Lakers45c72.58$33 inLost-$32.661080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Cavaliers50c68$34 inWon+$3417458%101 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed Cavaliers57c60$34 inWon+$25.82433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Lakers43c51.83$22 inLost-$22.2714949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Lakers43c50.27$22 inLost-$21.6239736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Cavaliers57c46.52$27 inWon+$2043244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a1…a9afbacked Cavaliers58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.482969%20 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x594b…02ffbacked Lakers59c20.25$12 inLost-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.