TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x92b5…3eefbacked Cavaliers52c8,342$4,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,003.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cavaliers54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,679.9429748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7f…c250backed Lakers48c7,151$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2be…6ab9backed Cavaliers52c6,971$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Lakers49c6,802$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers52c6,633$3,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,214.229,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc312…1120backed Lakers48c6,561$3,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e9d…1db9backed Cavaliers52c6,557$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a8…ae34backed Cavaliers52c6,509$3,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec6…7dd1backed Cavaliers52c6,345$3,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe71e…ff7bbacked Cavaliers53c6,281$3,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.07450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc2…d1cebacked Cavaliers53c5,755$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lakers45c5,460$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.9835744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8479…22b1backed Cavaliers52c5,435$2,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a2…b4efbacked Cavaliers52c5,293$2,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c3…5c7ebacked Lakers48c4,990$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd3…1e4fbacked Cavaliers52c4,989$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a9…6579backed Lakers48c4,935$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54cc…3e0fbacked Lakers48c4,798$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x994c…84b7backed Cavaliers52c4,774$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x921e…aca3backed Cavaliers52c4,698$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c7…f8e6backed Lakers48c4,453$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,137.44875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+54.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Lakers46c3,860$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.4515247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe54…dd5fbacked Lakers48c3,558$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers47c3,344$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3720…f6a2backed Cavaliers52c2,916$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.684100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce02…8ca5backed Cavaliers53c2,850$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31f6…442abacked Cavaliers55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.271741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…61b7backed Lakers48c2,718$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.6460%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd3a…3e71backed Cavaliers52c2,635$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29e5…07f0backed Cavaliers52c2,542$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d5…602fbacked Lakers48c2,534$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x892c…b11fbacked Cavaliers52c2,523$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…a555backed Cavaliers52c2,514$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.724100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…12d0backed Cavaliers52c2,486$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.284100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13e8…5afabacked Lakers48c2,455$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de0…5883backed Cavaliers52c2,447$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf08e…56d7backed Cavaliers52c2,444$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…938abacked Lakers48c2,422$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab7…ebc8backed Cavaliers52c2,412$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…713fbacked Cavaliers52c2,355$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a09…1ce7backed Lakers48c2,354$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…0b06backed Cavaliers52c2,354$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf9…79c1backed Cavaliers52c2,354$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf9f…8bd6backed Lakers48c2,352$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9136…cbebbacked Cavaliers52c2,351$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcda3…a0b0backed Lakers48c2,350$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…92b5backed Lakers48c2,344$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42d…74e5backed Lakers48c2,333$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.84450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4958…a146backed Lakers48c2,290$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-53.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x101f…90fdbacked Lakers48c2,288$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb578…85bdbacked Lakers48c2,260$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73b9…6065backed Lakers48c2,256$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ab…01c0backed Lakers48c2,250$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d2…069cbacked Lakers48c2,222$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d0…0145backed Lakers47c2,201$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f1…1149backed Lakers48c2,180$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3da…d38bbacked Lakers47c2,156$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x921c…0c1ebacked Cavaliers52c2,154$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac3…e053backed Lakers48c2,123$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6785…2e0ebacked Lakers48c2,121$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f3…eec9backed Lakers47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b9…12e4backed Lakers48c2,093$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.491947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…ad46backed Lakers48c2,082$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e8…33a7backed Cavaliers52c2,079$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.924100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ae…3f02backed Cavaliers52c2,053$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0227…b6cbbacked Lakers47c2,025$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c86…c458backed Lakers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec6…bc63backed Lakers48c1,999$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…5266backed Lakers48c1,877$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.911650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7322…43fcbacked Lakers47c1,789$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…e45ebacked Lakers47c1,765$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf525…5982backed Cavaliers53c1,650$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers45c1,623$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.222,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Cavaliers53c1,316$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.5121152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers46c1,305$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.32,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Cavaliers55c1,256$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.3650954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers47c1,196$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.814,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers49c1,098$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.233,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Cavaliers55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.918452.4%44 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Lakers46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Lakers47c1,065$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.557536%27 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Cavaliers55c1,018$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.1867252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1e…02acbacked Lakers47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+45.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e8…c300backed Lakers47c950$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f0…8525backed Lakers47c900$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers46c883.42$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.674,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9286…0b72backed Lakers47c850$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers53c830$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.11,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…57a5backed Lakers47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Cavaliers55c726$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9eb…1dfebacked Lakers48c660$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Lakers49c657$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.084755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd710…c75ebacked Lakers48c646$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecc…15f2backed Lakers48c635$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3afc…8453backed Lakers48c618$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef45…e01bbacked Lakers48c609$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c24…285ebacked Lakers48c584$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe3…a79cbacked Lakers48c582$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6019…7bb7backed Lakers48c556$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.