TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Stars vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Starsof Stars, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$871,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$884,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $871,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Stars49c229,655$113,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,377.3848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights51c115,019$58,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,659.7656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Stars49c114,569$55,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,72367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Golden Knights50c62,458$30,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,922.3126849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Golden Knights46c59,923$27,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,846.4838748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb859…e244backed Golden Knights51c40,000$20,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,25011052.7%58 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Stars56c34,750$19,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,362.7458841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights52c29,618$15,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,300.881,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights51c29,483$14,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,895.4548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Stars49c24,536$11,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,622.721,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Stars52c18,111$9,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,741.2512835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights49c16,239$7,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,984.492,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Golden Knights52c15,601$8,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,112.42944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Stars48c14,711$7,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,649.8512047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Golden Knights31c13,913$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Stars49c13,102$6,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,683.83435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe14…3bd1backed Golden Knights0c13,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Stars53c12,507$6,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,886.461,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights52c12,018$6,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,265.671,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights51c10,484$5,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,397.8361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Golden Knights51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf69…9076backed Stars46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Stars48c9,851$4,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,090.7914940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Stars47c9,684$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,132.328251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Golden Knights52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Golden Knights54c9,596$5,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.1154047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Golden Knights50c8,690$4,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,345.247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Golden Knights51c8,341$4,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,253.7314553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Golden Knights1c8,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Stars46c6,500$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5101,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Golden Knights53c6,067$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.7361748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Stars50c6,040$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.7519848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Golden Knights51c5,059$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,58033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights52c5,010$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.261959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Golden Knights50c5,005$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.55364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Golden Knights50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Stars47c4,974$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.3110840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Golden Knights51c4,969$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.3831654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights28c4,906$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.342,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Stars48c4,866$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.3286852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights5c4,754$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.521,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights51c4,700$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,39783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Golden Knights33c4,408$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Stars47c4,200$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22660337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights52c4,071$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0972,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Golden Knights52c4,000$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,06022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Golden Knights53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Stars49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Golden Knights50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Stars48c3,984$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.8216955.6%94 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Golden Knights39c3,469$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.4418344.8%82 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Golden Knights51c3,346$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.8493953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights49c3,205$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.211,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Golden Knights8c3,200$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.14912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9840…4530backed Stars47c3,176$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights51c3,153$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.4161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Golden Knights0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights51c2,742$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.421,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights36c2,705$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.0999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a4…4120backed Golden Knights54c2,572$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.13650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Golden Knights12c2,506$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4213437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights27c2,474$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.752,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Golden Knights33c2,446$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.8412838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights28c2,268$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.121,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ec…da55backed Golden Knights54c2,123$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Stars48c2,120$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.4318258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Golden Knights52c2,100$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09168449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Stars49c2,005$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.5575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Golden Knights51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Golden Knights52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Golden Knights55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Golden Knights50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights51c2,000$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.6591945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61a…4bcfbacked Stars49c1,984$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c53…6f25backed Golden Knights52c1,917$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Golden Knights52c1,900$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98822946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Golden Knights51c1,838$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.445955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights50c1,709$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.551,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Golden Knights52c1,669$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.881,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Golden Knights50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Stars49c1,540$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed Golden Knights10c1,535$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020448.5%99 W · 105 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Stars49c1,530$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.35736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x662f…c8d0backed Stars47c1,519$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Golden Knights44c1,500$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.2238046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Stars48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78010846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Golden Knights51c1,463$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.1313850.7%70 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Golden Knights28c1,391$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.938738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Golden Knights51c1,377$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.221,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Stars78c1,358$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.829562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Golden Knights50c1,297$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.9713954%75 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Golden Knights51c1,248$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.679157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights5c1,244$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6162951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights39c1,220$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.393,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Stars48c1,220$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.438664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Golden Knights19c1,193$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23081157.2%464 W · 347 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Golden Knights51c1,130$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.541,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4edf…4774backed Stars49c1,113$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.451050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.