Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9223eab2365e28688d66a6cce15c35b94ce4aafd48b679c9b1cbea175d8ff59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $553,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $428,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $553,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 14c | 24,549$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,522.32 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 16,657$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.13 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 18c | 9,240$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.75 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 14c | 9,000$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.26 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 8,928$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.52 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 8,509$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.71 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 7,299$5,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.63 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 12c | 6,922$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.32 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 16c | 6,840$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.61 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 16c | 6,400$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.23 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 17c | 5,572$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 14c | 5,434$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.9 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 5,098$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.6 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 10c | 5,089$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.5 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 18c | 4,651$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.08 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 17c | 4,575$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.28 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 12c | 4,500$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.69 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 24c | 4,133$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.08 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,348$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.36 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 20c | 3,309$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.27 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,027$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 9c | 2,735$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.58 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 16c | 2,524$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.72 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…6cffbacked Yes | 12c | 2,460$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 28c | 2,400$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed No | 79c | 2,371$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.86 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 77c | 2,304$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.63 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 21c | 2,247$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 80c | 2,211$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.46 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 17c | 2,202$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.5 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 14c | 2,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.3 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 24c | 2,130$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.53 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 5c | 2,086$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 1c | 2,072$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 74c | 2,036$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.16 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 20c | 2,003$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.81 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,766$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,631$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.91 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 24c | 1,510$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.31 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 10c | 1,474$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…778dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,466$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,342$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…5bd3backed Yes | 12c | 1,326$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 73c | 1,300$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.71 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 1,260$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 8c | 1,197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 18c | 1,142$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 1,101$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,096$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 13c | 1,055$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,008$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 1,007$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 972.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 16c | 899.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 23c | 899.98$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed No | 74c | 896.23$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.44 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 30c | 878.44$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 860$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 17c | 858.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 824.73$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed No | 66c | 820.98$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.72 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 19c | 800$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 7c | 800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 11c | 800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 22c | 796.63$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 75c | 783.07$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 748.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…a44dbacked Yes | 15c | 733.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…ea33backed Yes | 20c | 732.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 26c | 721.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.91 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 23c | 717.08$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 15c | 680$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 676.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…1ac1backed Yes | 22c | 670.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 75c | 667.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 12c | 646.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 27c | 626.24$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 12c | 618.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 14c | 618.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…9984backed Yes | 10c | 611.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 15c | 606.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 22c | 602.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 12c | 596.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 595.98$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 14c | 569.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.