Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc8d0415c38d2f8ac1ec5fa568015534999b79353aa21ff6ababba7e563647e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $999,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $842,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 0c | 217,700$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.99 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 34,016$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.16 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 32,960$4,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.54 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 21,066$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.19 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…cba5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 15,056$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.92 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 1c | 14,022$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed Yes | 0c | 13,650$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 16c | 9,147$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.94 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 9,011$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 25c | 6,095$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.41 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 5,785$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.52 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 5c | 5,442$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.44 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 5,168$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 19c | 4,102$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.38 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 8c | 4,031$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.09 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 77c | 3,816$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.71 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 14c | 3,704$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.83 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 3,556$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.85 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 17c | 3,502$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 13c | 3,298$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,178$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,051$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.52 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 2,959$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.79 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 7c | 2,926$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.63 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 7c | 2,800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 17c | 2,329$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 21c | 2,272$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.23 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 17c | 2,125$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.89 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 2,118$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 7c | 1,999$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 1,938$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 65c | 1,857$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.91 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 1,777$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 76c | 1,706$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.04 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 75c | 1,590$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.71 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,493$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 18c | 1,437$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.63 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 17c | 1,428$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,416$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 23c | 1,382$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.86 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,374$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,346$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,267$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 17c | 1,265$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 23c | 1,258$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,234$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 80c | 1,176$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.82 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 1,161$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 9c | 1,158$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 1,134$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,021$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.57 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e965backed Yes | 18c | 1,014$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,001$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 20c | 989$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 24c | 960$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 5c | 945.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 18c | 896.41$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 21c | 864.43$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 8c | 855.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 71c | 847.85$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.85 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 28c | 832$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 7c | 805.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 20c | 800$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 2c | 796.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 8c | 784.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 22c | 784.08$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…d653backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 13c | 745$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 22c | 742.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked Yes | 6c | 736.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29f…b607backed Yes | 24c | 736.25$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…265cbacked Yes | 14c | 717.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 699.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…177cbacked Yes | 10c | 699.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 14c | 698.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…ae26backed Yes | 7c | 677.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…89f3backed Yes | 15c | 654.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 7c | 649.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 17c | 647.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 628.04$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.11 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.