TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5f6a…8ec7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Serie A, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 51 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsbacked UC Santa Barbara Gauchos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,363Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$3,363.44
Idaho Vandals vs. Sacramento State Hornetsbacked Idaho Vandals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+49.1%+$559.05
Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilotsbacked Pepperdine Waves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+95.4%+$991.35
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineersbacked Utah Utes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+25.3%+$196.62
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Missouri State Bearsbacked Missouri State Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. San Diego State Aztecsbacked San Diego State Aztecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,899Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,899.22
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+50.2%+$629.36
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bullsbacked Northern Illinois Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$591Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+34.6%+$204.35
Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeersbacked Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+49.1%+$389.95
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked Boston College Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$356.24
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Chattanooga Mocsbacked Chattanooga Mocs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleersbacked Massachusetts Minutemen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$597
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensbacked Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+40.9%+$173.89
Drexel Dragons vs. Elon Phoenixbacked Drexel Dragons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+42%+$110.89
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.76
Rockets vs. Knicksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$3,705.89
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$7,568Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+84.1%+$6,363.16
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$629Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+29.3%+$184.09
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$683.01
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,094.77
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$205.27
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$251.58
Jazz vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+35.1%+$65.48
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$403.77
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$55.69
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$132.82
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33
All 13 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group Abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$20.2
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$21.48
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$232.92
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #17 Group Cbacked ENCE Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ARCRED (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Playoffsbacked Alliance · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+44.7%+$44.69
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,556Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$2,555.58
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+40.8%+$76.72
All 7 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cap Cana: Nicolas Mejia vs Shintaro Mochizukibacked Nicolas Mejia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.04
Cherbourg: Matteo Martineau vs Pavel Kotovbacked Pavel Kotov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$54.59
Kigali 2: Max Houkes vs Luka Pavlovicbacked Luka Pavlovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.98
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 31.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$260.79
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H Moneylinebacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+61.3%+$195.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+27%+$179.15
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,928Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$3,927.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$167.11
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$120.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$47.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$210
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,724Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$1,724.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$899Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$898.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$80.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.