Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72d5cd072a18f1e9e62964dff98baf2d198093bfb7344d8045094740b4e5cb0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 6,220$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.56 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 65c | 3,646$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Under | 38c | 3,237$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 64c | 3,000$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 62c | 2,400$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Under | 36c | 1,634$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Over | 52c | 1,059$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Under | 48c | 957$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Over | 52c | 701.92$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 559.97$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.97 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Over | 53c | 515$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 18c | 472.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 64c | 471.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Under | 48c | 471$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Under | 47c | 459$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 425.18$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed Over | 52c | 406$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…9a65backed Under | 45c | 360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Under | 42c | 331.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Under | 48c | 324$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed Under | 55c | 303.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 54c | 276.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Under | 54c | 273.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Under | 49c | 264$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Over | 51c | 264$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Under | 48c | 236$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 45c | 207.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 42c | 184.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…96d5backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…c3a3backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…5245backed Under | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…1a0cbacked Over | 55c | 179$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Under | 48c | 176$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 155.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 18c | 142.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 58c | 122$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 41c | 105.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 95.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Over | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Under | 48c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…ea42backed Under | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…af18backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 60c | 87.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…18d8backed Under | 30c | 71.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under | 45c | 66.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 46c | 61.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 50c | 60.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Under | 54c | 55.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 44c | 52.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 56c | 48.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 57c | 44.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3d…194abacked Under | 45c | 42.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Under | 39c | 39.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 50c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…5c06backed Under | 38c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.