Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c284cccd462e86a93d55d19c6b7d4975a8960b7cfeffc4cd0c59b4a9ed0c4cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Coast Mariners FCof Macarthur FC, Central Coast Mariners FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Macarthur FC | 31c | 1,423$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.09 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…ea42backed Macarthur FC | 39c | 330$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…1a0cbacked Macarthur FC | 39c | 324$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…c3a3backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…af18backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 61c | 168$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…96d5backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…9a65backed Macarthur FC | 39c | 162$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…556ebacked Central Coast Mariners FC | 61c | 162$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…5245backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 66c | 75.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Central Coast Mariners FC | 68c | 73.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Macarthur FC | 32c | 55.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Macarthur FC | 32c | 38.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.