Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e520d514744b7b0defe74088277b3a6731c138d48adc0c96948f3fff40e22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 41c | 10,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,949.98 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 4,955$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.84 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Under | 62c | 3,080$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 57c | 1,002$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 56c | 873.74$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 57c | 824.45$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 40c | 750$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.5 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 320.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 33c | 301.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 31c | 278.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 247.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 234.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 40c | 195.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 61c | 140.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…7909backed Under | 51c | 139.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…8f5dbacked Under | 42c | 118.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 40c | 108.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Under | 62c | 64.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…f116backed Over | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 57.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 54c | 32.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 64c | 25.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 53c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 56c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Under | 69c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.