TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Kigali 2: Max Houkes vs Luka Pavlovic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Max Houkesof Max Houkes, Luka Pavlovic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Max Houkes51c1,561$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.442,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Max Houkes62c1,188$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.736,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…76a4backed Luka Pavlovic45c1,113$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Max Houkes35c907.85$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.971,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Max Houkes32c841.88$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.6216029.4%47 W · 113 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Luka Pavlovic68c700$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.8845457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Luka Pavlovic53c681.89$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3632,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Luka Pavlovic65c672.84$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Max Houkes24c668.52$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.5212030%36 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Luka Pavlovic48c627.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30062534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Max Houkes36c525.36$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.741,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Luka Pavlovic44c521.01$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.983,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Max Houkes49c514.46$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.4694549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Max Houkes35c490.22$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.821,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Luka Pavlovic67c434.96$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2918530.6%26 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Luka Pavlovic47c428.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Max Houkes76c410.78$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.281,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Luka Pavlovic29c367.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.892,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Luka Pavlovic32c363.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.116,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Luka Pavlovic62c351.61$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Max Houkes37c328.04$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0429637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Luka Pavlovic63c317.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008345.8%38 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Max Houkes32c302.25$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.193,88435%1,358 W · 2,526 L+92.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Luka Pavlovic63c294$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7230542.6%130 W · 175 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Luka Pavlovic47c285.88$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931,38116.4%227 W · 1,154 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Max Houkes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Max Houkes35c283.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.161,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x068a…6fe7backed Max Houkes22c227.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.266852.9%36 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Max Houkes71c221.18$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.468,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb3…9dfdbacked Luka Pavlovic46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012360.2%74 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Max Houkes50c215.43$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.472,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Max Houkes43c203.31$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.551,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Luka Pavlovic64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12835040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Max Houkes61c195.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3972542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Luka Pavlovic73c194.36$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8842358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf535…e984backed Luka Pavlovic68c177.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204971.4%35 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Luka Pavlovic61c164.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6230351.8%157 W · 146 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6a…8ec7backed Luka Pavlovic66c160.81$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Luka Pavlovic64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Max Houkes17c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Luka Pavlovic64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9632842.7%140 W · 188 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Luka Pavlovic62c149.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.491,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Max Houkes37c136.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5166452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Luka Pavlovic41c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.521346.5%99 W · 114 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Max Houkes36c118$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9654434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Max Houkes39c112.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2638147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Max Houkes39c106.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.284,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Luka Pavlovic64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6477967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Luka Pavlovic37c95.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.053,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Max Houkes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f65…c1d0backed Luka Pavlovic62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.630349.8%151 W · 152 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Max Houkes37c79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.772,04347.8%977 W · 1,066 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac72…07c1backed Max Houkes35c77.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Max Houkes35c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.477,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec0…40dabacked Luka Pavlovic56c68.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.26637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Luka Pavlovic56c64.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3683661%510 W · 326 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed Luka Pavlovic68c63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.741080%8 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8614…717abacked Luka Pavlovic80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504269%29 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Max Houkes36c60.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.761,98046.2%915 W · 1,065 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Max Houkes36c58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8718233.5%61 W · 121 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3578…f163backed Luka Pavlovic65c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3539872.4%288 W · 110 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf48e…1e01backed Luka Pavlovic65c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.14763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Max Houkes30c53.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1231941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Max Houkes33c53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.786647.9%415 W · 451 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Max Houkes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317848.7%38 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked Max Houkes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7513157.3%75 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Max Houkes35c41.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.831,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69b…d240backed Luka Pavlovic65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616959.2%100 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Max Houkes46c37.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…f632backed Max Houkes39c34.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.968361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Max Houkes47c33.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.66,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Luka Pavlovic46c32.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.994854.2%26 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161f…d3f4backed Luka Pavlovic64c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.484060%24 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Luka Pavlovic65c31.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3832649.1%160 W · 166 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Luka Pavlovic74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.29455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Luka Pavlovic52c28.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8961953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Luka Pavlovic64c28.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1858067.8%393 W · 187 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Luka Pavlovic68c23.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.362,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x613f…6463backed Luka Pavlovic58c22.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.255937.3%22 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a1…7758backed Luka Pavlovic74c22.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.744671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c29…fb0bbacked Luka Pavlovic64c22.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick53cpaid-71.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Max Houkes53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3243951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…644abacked Luka Pavlovic74c20.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516175.2%121 W · 40 L+20.4wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8161…e08ebacked Luka Pavlovic65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314553.1%77 W · 68 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Luka Pavlovic63c18.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031339.9%125 W · 188 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e50…8c97backed Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a2…d591backed Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102466.7%16 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf526…6589backed Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36db…74fdbacked Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ea…2aacbacked Luka Pavlovic64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107261.1%44 W · 28 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.