Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c9827d0da9e1dc91a2c497afe10e8ba852e72e68d7efbe1b7a677542eb31a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 15,672$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 14,064$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.6 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,527$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,221$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d6…70a9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 8,600$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.96 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 8,586$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 7,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,910$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 25c | 6,145$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.63 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 0c | 6,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 3c | 5,991$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,857$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,299$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 13c | 3,100$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,766$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 5c | 2,258$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,166$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.08 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 2,082$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 3c | 2,063$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…da04backed Yes | 5c | 2,017$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 5c | 1,972$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 1,953$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.29 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 5c | 1,820$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,790$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.23 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,737$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 14c | 1,718$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.32 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 1,567$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,554$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 74c | 1,494$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.76 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 16c | 1,419$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.62 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,361$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 5c | 1,267$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…4471backed Yes | 12c | 1,235$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 3c | 1,155$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5b2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 17c | 1,059$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Yes | 27c | 1,055$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 5c | 851.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 11c | 835.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 6c | 799.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6a…8ec7backed Yes | 3c | 736.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 8c | 699.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 690.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 680.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 24c | 656.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 655.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…8347backed Yes | 3c | 636.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 18c | 593.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 8c | 577.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…3badbacked Yes | 3c | 557.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 531.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 24c | 501$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed Yes | 3c | 486.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 6c | 474.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 18c | 446.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 443.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 439.52$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…f5a9backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 19c | 399.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Yes | 6c | 390.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 389.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…1d47backed Yes | 26c | 373.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 26c | 364.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 8c | 319.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 8c | 310.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 10c | 307.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 27c | 299.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 14c | 289.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 260.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 25c | 251.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…a6f5backed Yes | 11c | 249.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 20c | 234.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…1049backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.