Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6756675d81f4b51a641d6a095b3238c3d892b3d0db127f5960a54540007a089f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $517,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 25,063$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.01 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 20c | 18,461$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.56 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 2c | 16,645$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.21 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 16,374$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.19 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 12,360$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.3 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 15c | 8,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.97 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 6,261$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 6,136$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.2 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 13c | 5,725$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.55 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 78c | 5,482$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.73 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 5,460$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.76 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 18c | 4,926$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.47 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,892$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 4,857$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.17 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 6c | 4,324$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.57 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 14c | 4,005$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.67 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,555$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +1,155.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 26c | 3,449$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.73 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 22c | 3,428$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 8c | 3,398$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 9c | 3,340$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.59 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,091$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.28 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 4c | 2,950$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,648$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.2 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 5c | 2,623$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,459$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 2,374$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 7c | 2,360$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 80c | 2,035$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…55ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,021$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.6 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 22c | 1,996$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.85 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 9c | 1,990$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,950$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 20c | 1,900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,807$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.22 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,800$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 9c | 1,656$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,601$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…da04backed Yes | 21c | 1,593$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 12c | 1,542$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 1,510$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.62 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.28 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 1,213$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed Yes | 19c | 1,212$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,192$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 8c | 1,183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 79c | 1,132$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…4471backed Yes | 27c | 1,129$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.49 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 18c | 1,125$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 1,106$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,095$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 68c | 1,050$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…0b88backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 25c | 1,007$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.73 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…b94dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 9c | 930$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 29c | 888.98$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.02 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 6c | 882.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 858.6$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 1c | 848.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 28c | 843$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.22 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 17c | 824.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 7c | 800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 24c | 799.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…d37ebacked Yes | 3c | 799.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 791.08$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.73 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 790.49$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 13c | 789.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed Yes | 3c | 786.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 18c | 774.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 6c | 761.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes | 24c | 752.29$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…b721backed No | 71c | 716.67$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 18c | 700.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9f…2c30backed Yes | 5c | 698.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 33c | 628.42$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 612.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 12c | 587.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 17c | 576.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 17c | 570$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed Yes | 2c | 566.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.