TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$517,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$423,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,779 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c25,063$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634.011,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes20c18,461$3,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,715.5663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes2c16,645$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.219923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes12c16,374$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.1954122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes9c12,360$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c10,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.579811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes15c8,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9736411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes17c6,261$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05022718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes9c6,136$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.218722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes13c5,725$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.5524115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No78c5,482$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.7354675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes3c5,460$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1124710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes18c4,926$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.472359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes6c4,892$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.942785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c4,857$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c4,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes6c4,324$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.5724815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes14c4,005$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.6710610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes4c3,555$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+1,155.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes26c3,449$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.7318618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes22c3,428$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.962733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes8c3,398$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes9c3,340$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.597233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes17c3,091$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2810818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes4c2,950$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304637%17 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes6c2,700$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175958.4%8 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes20c2,648$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.260127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes5c2,623$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.942326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes14c2,459$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.8412614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes3c2,374$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe15a…9854backed Yes7c2,360$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1575923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No80c2,035$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.320924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd897…55ddbacked Yes5c2,021$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No76c2,000$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.616427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6045511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes22c1,996$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.8515819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes9c1,990$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.134215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes8c1,950$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes20c1,900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.5231722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes11c1,807$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.221,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes9c1,800$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes9c1,656$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6229225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,601$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.472,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ab…da04backed Yes21c1,593$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes12c1,542$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.911007%7 W · 93 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-24.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c1,510$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6278811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes10c1,500$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0328534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes25c1,500$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.2815017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes10c1,300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.927320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes5c1,213$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9411418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed Yes19c1,212$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes16c1,192$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.77417.6%13 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes8c1,183$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No79c1,132$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.18742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes27c1,129$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.492114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes18c1,125$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.44808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes4c1,121$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes15c1,106$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1241230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes2c1,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.982711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes4c1,095$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.55619.6%11 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No68c1,050$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.9415164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc8…0b88backed Yes2c1,013$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes5c1,010$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.492030%6 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes25c1,007$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7325023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9518424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Yes5c1,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.462630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes6c999.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes9c930$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.489921.2%21 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes29c888.98$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0232716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes6c882.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9919118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c858.6$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.442,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes1c848.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017817.4%31 W · 147 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes28c843$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes17c824.27$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.155414.8%8 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x614b…747abacked Yes7c800$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54822.9%11 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes24c799.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19211618.1%21 W · 95 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3580…d37ebacked Yes3c799.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c791.08$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.7326167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c790.49$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9731565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes13c789.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.411918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af6…7cb7backed Yes3c786.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes18c774.6$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes6c761.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.174114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes24c752.29$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.112412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb82…b721backed No71c716.67$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.172330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes18c700.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.088622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9f…2c30backed Yes5c698.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes33c628.42$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.381631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes16c612.74$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes2c599.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes20c599.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1235817.2%10 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes12c587.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.072441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes17c576.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.046320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+196.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes17c570$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd365…d5d7backed Yes2c566.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134918.4%9 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+193.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.