Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5102277ee00e29b1b26b41a88ccc28af36db3dc27177da3b51bade6e177eddc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 12,142$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 56c | 9,973$5,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,389.69 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 53c | 7,869$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,669.6 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a27…93e8backed No | 52c | 7,442$3,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,903.7 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 72c | 6,617$4,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.81 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 41c | 6,452$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,804.55 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 77c | 6,112$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.61 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 45c | 5,935$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.61 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 1c | 5,608$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 77c | 5,516$4,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.09 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 11c | 5,443$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.41 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 29c | 4,871$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.06 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 4,857$3,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.37 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 2c | 3,937$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked No | 29c | 3,829$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.19 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7a…525fbacked No | 73c | 3,746$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,673$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,464.9 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 36c | 3,413$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.94 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 62c | 3,300$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.79 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 2c | 3,224$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.26 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 61c | 3,160$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.8 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 64c | 3,160$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.89 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…4471backed Yes | 37c | 3,018$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.26 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 63c | 3,006$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.04 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 77c | 2,891$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.81 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 61c | 2,489$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.18 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 60c | 2,474$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.01 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 29c | 2,295$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.81 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 77c | 2,159$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.1 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 71c | 2,119$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.59 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed Yes | 73c | 2,033$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.13 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 52c | 2,006$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.76 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked No | 10c | 1,939$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 71c | 1,891$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.65 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 5c | 1,848$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 22c | 1,750$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.75 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 1,736$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 27c | 1,686$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.83 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 72c | 1,656$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.2 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,644$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.33 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 24c | 1,644$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.27 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 1,595$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.69 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 70c | 1,586$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.15 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 47c | 1,569$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.19 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.33 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 1,420$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.63 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 1,371$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.95 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 54c | 1,271$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.71 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1b…a02fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,260$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 1,260$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.1 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 1,212$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.08 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 42c | 1,208$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.37 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 47c | 1,205$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.14 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,203$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.17 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 76c | 1,197$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.51 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 19c | 1,143$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.84 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 46c | 1,122$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.98 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 1,110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 32c | 1,060$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.74 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 67c | 1,056$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.33 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 53c | 1,056$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.17 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 1,045$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 66c | 1,005$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed No | 46c | 1,000$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 78c | 997.45$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…177cbacked Yes | 57c | 991.7$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 52c | 966.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…bfd2backed Yes | 71c | 956.61$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.36 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e2abacked Yes | 48c | 946.97$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 45c | 927.71$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.69 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…9bb9backed Yes | 74c | 893.38$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 887.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 60c | 839.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.04 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 24c | 828.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 29c | 801.16$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.07 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 38c | 800$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…8414backed No | 33c | 800$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked Yes | 67c | 800$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 12c | 793.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.8 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 61c | 779.19$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.04 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 24c | 774.71$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.71 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 36c | 771.21$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.48 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 53c | 769.11$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.15 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…2906backed Yes | 70c | 758.38$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 25c | 750.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.68 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked Yes | 73c | 748.52$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 14c | 739.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 75c | 723.62$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d25…aa79backed Yes | 76c | 723.52$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 29c | 706.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…4866backed Yes | 57c | 702.79$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 71c | 701.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.59 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 17c | 686.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 48c | 685.39$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.39 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…f13abacked Yes | 59c | 676.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.