Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5734d988f2e429c8bf13f02434f23ab8c95a865b6e1e81a2e43c6317d68749c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,368,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,019,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,368,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 1c | 98,646$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.2 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 1c | 76,456$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 48,516$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,804.37 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c46…e592backed Yes | 0c | 37,015$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 30,004$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.22 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…3a13backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 12c | 25,690$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.43 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 7c | 24,795$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.92 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…119cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,505$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 8c | 15,658$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.09 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 4c | 15,223$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,901$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 20c | 13,782$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.92 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 8c | 11,545$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.08 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 18c | 10,986$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.9 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 10,959$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.06 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 13c | 10,507$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 10,197$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.6 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…1ffdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,777$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 17c | 9,204$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.24 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…34debacked Yes | 0c | 9,101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 9,000$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.17 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…1787backed Yes | 1c | 8,400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 7,734$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.86 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 78c | 6,434$5,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.61 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 4c | 5,825$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.34 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…9f72backed Yes | 17c | 5,523$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +307.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,249$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.02 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…1e15backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 15c | 4,908$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.13 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,866$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 4,857$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.26 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 12c | 4,769$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.57 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…da04backed Yes | 31c | 4,677$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 12c | 4,518$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.14 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 74c | 4,500$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.99 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,476$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…281ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,302$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 18c | 4,291$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.03 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,283$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 17c | 4,031$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed Yes | 21c | 3,870$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.09 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…7a9bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,864$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 3,726$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 4c | 3,583$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 8c | 3,485$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.18 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 1c | 3,455$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,410$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.61 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 15c | 3,362$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…d963backed No | 80c | 3,330$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…5fe6backed Yes | 18c | 3,330$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 13c | 3,168$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.21 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 17c | 3,058$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.01 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 19c | 3,053$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,970$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,846$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.38 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,741$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.27 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 2,709$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.8 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,611$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.64 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 15c | 2,531$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.98 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,520$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 9c | 2,384$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 9c | 2,375$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,354$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 14c | 2,145$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.25 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,123$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.57 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…7367backed Yes | 1c | 2,098$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,030$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,011$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 1,933$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 22c | 1,895$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.9 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 1,874$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 7c | 1,861$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…cf39backed Yes | 14c | 1,841$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,830$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Yes | 13c | 1,825$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,819$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,754$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,747$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,707$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +1,155.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 13c | 1,656$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.11 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 15c | 1,646$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 14c | 1,622$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.26 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,615$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,605$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.05 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 73c | 1,585$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.2 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 20c | 1,572$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Yes | 16c | 1,563$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,560$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,548$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 3c | 1,528$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 18c | 1,501$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…22f1backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 22c | 1,492$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.78 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.