TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d2d…dff7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
247
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Cricket, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Cricket at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT13023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 130 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$15.9
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.17
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+889.3%+$360.83
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+201.5%+$396.32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.02
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.76
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+237.6%+$357.36
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$538.34
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.21
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.8
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$627.56
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+198.7%+$406.23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.33
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+500%+$1,317
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$767Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$767.45
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.74
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.95
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.66
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.23
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.75
Showing 25 of 130 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT7454.1%40 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs South Africabacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$41.46
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs Indiabacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.5
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealandbacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.58
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Irelandbacked Ireland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$109.15
Will England win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$97.92
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistanbacked Afghanistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.54
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australiabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$122.69
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotlandbacked West Indies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$65.99
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.65
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kingsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.3
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.19
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$55.54
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengalurubacked Royal Challengers Bengaluru · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+32%+$177
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.58
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$52.5
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$189.33
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalorebacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$229.5
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$116
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$140
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Punjab Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.14
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$45.76
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.64
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.05
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$80.63
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.86
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+111.2%+$51.59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.72
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+880.4%+$641.78
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.71
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.06
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$59.67
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.75
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$44.25
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$46.26
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+141.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.