TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes36c3,068$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes2c2,411$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.991,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes23c1,750$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c1,313$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.262,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No63c848.56$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.4655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes24c780.27$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.982218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c719.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.421,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c709$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.325,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes40c507.58$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.552737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes15c506.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.331,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c473.55$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.184,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No53c443.78$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.141,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes9c368.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2320341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No66c349.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c345.74$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.574,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c321.38$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes21c308.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.32,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No57c295.63$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.121,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No69c288.92$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c283.15$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.573,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c269.53$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c254$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.72,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes11c249.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.395543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No59c236.46$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4713545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed No58c233.35$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.151353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No72c217.06$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c206.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c200.42$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.873,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c193.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.231,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c172.35$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.091,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c170$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No71c169.17$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.231,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes37c160.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.988737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes11c149.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2517241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No71c147.76$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c145.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.716,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes8c131.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No53c131.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c130.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes43c130$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.214238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes9c126.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c119.13$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No56c114.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.362,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No53c107.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c106$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.163,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No75c103.77$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c100.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.463,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No69c99.89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.771,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.995,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c92.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.911,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes14c85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No65c83.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.632,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c77.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c77.33$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.333,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No66c74.83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.444647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes41c74.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.414940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No65c67.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a55…d76abacked No66c67.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.932770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes47c66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No75c63.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes42c63.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.566817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes17c62.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.645230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No75c60.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes40c56.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.290734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes42c52.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c52.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3744646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No65c49.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3917858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes40c49.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7355538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…2776backed Yes60c49.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes42c48.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c48.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.151,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes53c47.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No42c46.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.836437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes45c44.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8818131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d5…7227backed Yes26c42.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9e7…ed80backed No62c39.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.176552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No52c38.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.381,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No57c37.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2913751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c35.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c35.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1a…07f0backed No43c34.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes58c34.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c33.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.472,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220f…1a7cbacked Yes64c31.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes43c31.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No65c30.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7247175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x291a…a405backed No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No65c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.628360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed No53c27.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No64c24.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1631564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.