Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad3a1982ed6895fc9743d17f58b5bfebed009e9b54bba717d0297db6ab24669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 36c | 3,068$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,411$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 23c | 1,750$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 1,313$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 848.56$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.46 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 24c | 780.27$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 719.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 709$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 40c | 507.58$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 506.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 473.55$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 53c | 443.78$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 9c | 368.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 349.92$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 345.74$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 321.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 308.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 295.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 288.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 283.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 269.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 254$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 11c | 249.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 59c | 236.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 58c | 233.35$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 217.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 206.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 200.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 193.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 172.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 169.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 37c | 160.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 147.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 145.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 131.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 53c | 131.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 130.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 9c | 126.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 119.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 114.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 107.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 103.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 100.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 99.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 92.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 83.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 77.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 77.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 66c | 74.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 41c | 74.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 67.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 66c | 67.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 63.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 42c | 63.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 17c | 62.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 60.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 56.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 52.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 52.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 49.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 49.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2776backed Yes | 60c | 49.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 42c | 48.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 48.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 53c | 47.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 42c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 45c | 44.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 26c | 42.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 62c | 39.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 57c | 37.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 35.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 35.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…07f0backed No | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…1a7cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 43c | 31.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a405backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed No | 53c | 27.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.