Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb38f73f0548d9d8cff53114f086d53cff4038e2ea126f63810a2fcc018a9bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,760$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 1,262$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 1,235$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 714$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 73c | 590.04$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.64 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 575.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 340.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 327.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Yes | 11c | 313.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 307.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 53c | 286.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 266.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 264.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 14c | 260$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 245.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 27c | 229.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 226$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes | 23c | 211.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 27c | 187.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 185.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 178.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 21c | 177.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 16c | 169$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 72c | 163.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 159.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 11c | 155.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 150.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 150.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 148.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 147.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 15c | 140.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 135.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 11c | 130.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 17c | 126.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 16c | 121.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 76c | 113.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 110.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 106.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 103.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 71c | 101.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 25c | 99.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 98.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 30c | 97.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…7c26backed Yes | 12c | 96.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +782.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 93.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 66c | 92.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 90.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 13c | 84.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 13c | 83.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 61c | 80.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 77.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 75.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 74.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 17c | 70.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 46c | 69.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 20c | 67.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 77c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 60.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 53.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 22c | 50.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 40c | 50.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 48.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 48.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 48.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 46.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 46.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 44.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 64c | 41.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 35.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 74c | 33.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 39c | 31.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 30.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 27.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 24.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 73c | 24.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 76c | 22.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.