Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279a3c09897b9ae421bd275eb0bbeb1f7b464ebfe4e6788eef66e217911f47c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,597$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 1,159$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 939.04$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 923.37$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 714$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 553.57$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 516.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 430.92$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 415.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 404.05$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 397.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 378.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 345.1$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 50c | 288.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 285.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 58c | 271.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 251$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 247.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…e546backed Yes | 16c | 228.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 220.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 217.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 216.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 17c | 204.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 202.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 195$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 25c | 189.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 35c | 180.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 174.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 169.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 160.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 44c | 150.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 38c | 149.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 149.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 147.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 141.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 139$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 132.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 122.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 121.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 121$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 119.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 118.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 117.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 58c | 111.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 109.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 104.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 103.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 100.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 99.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 49c | 98.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 95.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 89.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 89.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 65c | 87.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 23c | 87.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 17c | 86.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 83.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 78c | 83.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 83.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 46c | 81.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 74.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 72.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 63c | 72.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 41c | 72.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 69.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 67.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 39c | 66.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 65.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 58.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 57.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…df5cbacked Yes | 63c | 54.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 47c | 54.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 54.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 51.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.