TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes2c1,597$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.591,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes45c1,159$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.371,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c939.04$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.628,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes57c923.37$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.971,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c714$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.335,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c553.57$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.894,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c516.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes58c430.92$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.815,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c415.71$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c404.05$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.254,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No45c397.37$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c378.3$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No47c345.1$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.471,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No50c288.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No54c285.4$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.051,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes58c271.82$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0214646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c251$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.85,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes44c247.64$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1310244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba22…e546backed Yes16c228.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.28825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No57c220.77$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No52c217.48$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.381,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No47c216.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.893,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes17c204.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.515543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c202.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes34c199.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c195$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes25c189.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.883740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes35c180.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c174.86$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.432,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No53c169.84$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.431,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No55c160.44$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes44c150.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.117241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes38c149.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.744751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No58c149.21$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.721,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes35c147.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.151,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c141.4$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.962,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes27c139$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1972125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes41c132.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6135325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No47c122.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c121.2$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c121$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.823,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c119.03$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.883,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes30c118.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.661,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes34c117.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No58c111.72$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6418629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c110$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.252,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No43c109.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c104.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.273,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No58c103.9$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c100.88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.853,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6426540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.754238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c99.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes49c98.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.756648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No71c95.88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.832,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.73,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes49c89.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes49c89.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.953,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed No65c87.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes23c87.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes17c86.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7820144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c83.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.392,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d3…5122backed Yes78c83.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.041546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes33c83.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No46c81.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0838860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes37c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes42c74.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes40c72.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No63c72.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes41c72.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.574940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.492,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c70.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.319,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c69.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.062,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes41c67.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.413,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No39c66.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3913551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No75c65.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.322,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.760739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes36c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c58.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes33c57.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.668737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes37c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6215032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes35c54.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa367…df5cbacked Yes63c54.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No47c54.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c54.53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes41c51.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2965934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.526256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.522645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.