Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab40fa06163cca8afee7aca576e51bbf85c4177c81041b514f5ab53ebc1bb116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 6c | 23,955$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.86 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,382$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 9,092$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.66 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,986$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.94 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 4,493$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.24 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 30c | 4,475$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,119.16 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 47c | 3,995$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.23 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 37c | 3,971$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.32 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 13c | 3,806$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.97 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes | 58c | 3,514$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,421$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.17 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 50c | 3,238$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.74 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,216$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.16 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed Yes | 11c | 3,080$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.51 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 46c | 2,880$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.11 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 28c | 2,832$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.57 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,795$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 2,752$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8641…e3acbacked Yes | 64c | 2,528$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 48c | 2,351$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.39 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 34c | 2,324$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.2 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 7c | 2,104$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 36c | 2,013$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.48 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,998$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 53c | 1,901$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 1,866$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.45 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…61f4backed Yes | 43c | 1,838$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 64c | 1,830$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.62 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…f71fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,819$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,696$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…a191backed Yes | 20c | 1,660$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 57c | 1,612$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.26 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,550$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 54c | 1,504$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.08 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 17c | 1,445$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 10c | 1,407$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 38c | 1,388$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…95ebbacked No | 53c | 1,383$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.99 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 1,286$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.31 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,199$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.29 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 3c | 1,113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,056$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 27c | 996.85$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 947.18$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.64 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 38c | 920.48$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.95 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 908.25$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.34 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 36c | 891.36$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 47c | 877.07$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.92 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 16c | 862.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 62c | 849.99$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.49 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…307cbacked Yes | 65c | 835.92$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.5 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 815.47$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 27c | 774.74$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.67 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 54c | 766.56$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.04 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 28c | 750$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 51c | 749.25$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 739.04$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.46 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 47c | 731.92$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.09 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 8c | 708.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 705.92$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.83 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 684.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.47 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…e726backed Yes | 67c | 660.1$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 24c | 624.82$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.26 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…deabbacked Yes | 71c | 616.78$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed Yes | 53c | 607$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.66 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 66c | 590.91$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 37c | 580.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.76 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 9c | 535.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 7c | 504.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 503.77$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.46 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 52c | 499.18$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.55 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 64c | 496.51$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.52 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 487.86$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 65c | 461.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 54c | 451.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 57c | 450.9$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.32 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 38c | 439.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbc…a6d6backed Yes | 9c | 428.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 57c | 405.83$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…f1a1backed Yes | 52c | 401.62$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.97 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…ab00backed Yes | 9c | 400.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 5c | 382.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 34c | 379.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 9c | 375.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 4c | 374.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3b…5ae2backed Yes | 20c | 373.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 18c | 358.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 52c | 352.06$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 38c | 350$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.7 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 12c | 343.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d2…8dacbacked Yes | 71c | 343.18$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 54c | 338.6$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 20c | 333$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.