Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf219d7c9fe132cf2477d14ced40163b369efcbae62be8eef04971b29dd05410f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $739,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $484,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $739,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 93,301$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.61 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 8c | 43,916$3,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305.16 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 38,905$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.97 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 7c | 21,049$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.13 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.85 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 3c | 14,805$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.02 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 6c | 13,950$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.72 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 4c | 13,357$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 11,237$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.84 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 7c | 8,530$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.11 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 7c | 7,749$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.39 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 7,612$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.79 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,275$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 3c | 7,077$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.92 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 1c | 6,414$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,238$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.86 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 4c | 5,917$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.68 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 5,886$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.83 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,993$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.62 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,811$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 4,717$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.42 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,434$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.41 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 4,322$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.73 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 6c | 4,175$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 6c | 4,132$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.15 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 4,032$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.1 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 4c | 3,992$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 3,532$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,487$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 3,428$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 3,300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…f71fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d3…e750backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,069$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 1c | 3,040$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 10c | 2,986$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 5c | 2,983$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 11c | 2,846$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.73 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 6c | 2,793$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 2,725$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 7c | 2,700$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 10c | 2,696$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.79 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,618$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,494$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,335$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 10c | 2,296$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 1c | 2,280$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,229$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 2,210$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 4c | 2,114$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes | 33c | 2,077$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.3 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,948$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.06 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 1,898$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…3b02backed Yes | 4c | 1,888$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,850$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,840$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 2c | 1,627$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 3c | 1,579$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 4c | 1,550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,493$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,480$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,447$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,445$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 1,436$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 2c | 1,389$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,375$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 4c | 1,371$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,339$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 4c | 1,313$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,307$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 3c | 1,231$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 9c | 1,220$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 1,208$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,181$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…4dcabacked Yes | 10c | 1,171$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…554ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,158$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…32c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,076$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,001$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 6c | 999.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 3c | 979.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 4c | 976.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 4c | 971.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 950.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 7c | 950.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 23c | 949.16$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.93 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 11c | 933.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.