Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040ba4d4b497225f1c50e6ff398c079d249fa4b905faf12bb521771b796e7378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 41,875$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.83 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 38,595$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 20,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…6ffabacked Yes | 0c | 9,839$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 8,058$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 3c | 6,774$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 6,273$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.36 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…61f4backed Yes | 7c | 5,677$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,192$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 5,094$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 4,268$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,256$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,479$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…11f8backed Yes | 6c | 3,178$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 2c | 2,741$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,358$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 10c | 2,255$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.92 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 2,119$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,992$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,931$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 1c | 1,828$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 2c | 1,787$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,742$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,657$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 1c | 1,580$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…74bfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,490$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…3b97backed Yes | 3c | 1,450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 1,448$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 6c | 1,416$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 10c | 1,401$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,389$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed Yes | 19c | 1,338$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.93 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,315$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,253$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,096$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 18c | 975.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…7171backed Yes | 2c | 912.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 906.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 10c | 844.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…e5edbacked Yes | 2c | 825$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 10c | 782.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 12c | 773.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 2c | 747.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 2c | 726.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 11c | 708.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 669.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes | 14c | 656.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 640.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…a6a6backed Yes | 3c | 621.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…03c7backed Yes | 2c | 616.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 2c | 601.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 26c | 600.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 22c | 547.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 539.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 515.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…425ebacked Yes | 5c | 502.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 26c | 465.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 5c | 459.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 4c | 438.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked No | 77c | 434.11$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…0d09backed Yes | 4c | 377.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes | 3c | 344.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 19c | 274.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 9c | 218.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed No | 47c | 213.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 7c | 205.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 20c | 193.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…e0c9backed No | 80c | 182$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 75cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 6c | 161.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 75c | 159.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed No | 75c | 125.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 11c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 15c | 117.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 17c | 114.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 24c | 100.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…2d9bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…b910backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…f29ebacked Yes | 26c | 90.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91da…6d5ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a38…e797backed Yes | 19c | 74.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 78c | 72.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 18c | 70.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes | 17c | 57.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…e7b4backed Yes | 19c | 52.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14f…873ebacked Yes | 27c | 51.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…623bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.