TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7172…b910

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Serie A at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT6016.7%10 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.79
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.98
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.62
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.51
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.05
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.63
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+99.6%+$59.76
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$252
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$18.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.