TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$685,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $685,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c73,946$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6713815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes3c30,002$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.2863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c15,152$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.151772.3%4 W · 173 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+467.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c13,580$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2312528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes7c10,895$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.186613.6%9 W · 57 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c10,670$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.462,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c10,630$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7651410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes16c10,452$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.9717631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c9,857$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.1688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes12c9,001$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9945715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb75…33f6backed Yes6c8,877$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick15cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes8c8,858$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.0931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes10c8,309$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.81,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes1c7,448$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes15c7,030$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.7714413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c6,316$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.131,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes6c6,052$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.511,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes1c6,033$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2713315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes12c5,537$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.0788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c5,275$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3840719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes9c4,682$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0231624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c4,505$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.421732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes10c4,332$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.862259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes17c4,156$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.1353522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes15c4,103$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.3433422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes12c4,100$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8131621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes15c4,002$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58925311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes11c3,860$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7616023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes11c3,783$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes9c3,703$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.2488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes1c3,416$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7211011.8%13 W · 97 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes2c3,365$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1151845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes5c3,288$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2419930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes7c3,286$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9323212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes8c3,192$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.1315312.4%19 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes3c3,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.414829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes13c2,803$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.152213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes3c2,524$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.261308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes12c2,459$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c2,408$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes18c2,396$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.7832016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes13c2,307$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3619118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes7c2,085$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1230317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes12c2,050$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,045$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.952,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes19c2,035$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9421614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes12c2,000$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2475718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes9c1,991$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes12c1,918$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9911430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0240…32b8backed Yes3c1,677$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes12c1,673$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.718419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes14c1,668$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7310514.3%15 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc703…4361backed Yes11c1,640$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes5c1,628$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.045516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…8e4bbacked Yes4c1,624$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.391921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes5c1,618$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0614625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes16c1,612$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8610617%18 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes3c1,531$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9327224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51539.8%15 W · 138 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c1,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.941,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes5c1,449$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.36334.9%22 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4833…74bfbacked Yes6c1,415$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+137.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes12c1,390$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes11c1,371$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.610330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes13c1,332$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes2c1,314$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2211320.4%23 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes20c1,273$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes2c1,247$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.945411.1%6 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes14c1,225$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes14c1,201$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16617824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d5…ee5cbacked Yes15c1,200$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.853531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes16c1,179$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18534833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes20c1,141$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.3514928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes2c1,138$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.936710.4%7 W · 60 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes3c1,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2575.3%3 W · 54 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes11c1,100$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes10c1,066$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes4c1,031$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9221222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes13c1,012$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5810829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes6c1,008$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.061157.8%9 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…27efbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a4…69d5backed Yes12c999.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…b575backed Yes11c999.82$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.982524%6 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes11c996.87$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1143218.8%6 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde98…b6cebacked Yes19c991.2$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.011811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes16c957.82$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1912332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c949.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.686915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ad…c373backed Yes22c943.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.343517.1%6 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes12c914.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes11c899.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.513917.3%24 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c896.41$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0854675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes15c885.54$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4311325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes16c881.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9816024.4%39 W · 121 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes15c868.75$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7813911.5%16 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes22c861$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.266921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes4c860.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8922926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes16c858.93$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1409614.6%14 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.