Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718b2af2d2b6588ed650d191bf65fe598d70f0b870761ba4a9669bc5d63db2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $685,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $685,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 73,946$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 30,002$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.28 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 15,152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 177 | 2.3%4 W · 173 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,580$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 7c | 10,895$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.18 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 10,670$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.46 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 10,630$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 16c | 10,452$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.97 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 9,857$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.16 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 12c | 9,001$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…33f6backed Yes | 6c | 8,877$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 8c | 8,858$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.09 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 8,309$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.8 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,448$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 15c | 7,030$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.77 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 6,316$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.13 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 6,052$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.51 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 1c | 6,033$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 12c | 5,537$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.07 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,275$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 9c | 4,682$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.02 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 4,505$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.4 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,332$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.86 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 17c | 4,156$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.13 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 15c | 4,103$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.34 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 12c | 4,100$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.81 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 15c | 4,002$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 11c | 3,860$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 3,783$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.91 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 9c | 3,703$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…26f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 3,365$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 5c | 3,288$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,286$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.93 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 8c | 3,192$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,803$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 3c | 2,524$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,459$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,408$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 18c | 2,396$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.78 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 13c | 2,307$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 7c | 2,085$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,050$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,045$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 19c | 2,035$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.94 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 9c | 1,991$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.05 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 12c | 1,918$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…32b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,677$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 12c | 1,673$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,668$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…4361backed Yes | 11c | 1,640$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 5c | 1,628$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…8e4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,624$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,618$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,612$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,531$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…74bfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,415$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 12c | 1,390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,371$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 13c | 1,332$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,273$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 14c | 1,225$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.93 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 14c | 1,201$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ee5cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,200$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.85 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,179$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,141$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…4277backed Yes | 2c | 1,138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 10c | 1,066$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 4c | 1,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 13c | 1,012$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,008$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 115 | 7.8%9 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…27efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…69d5backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…b575backed Yes | 11c | 999.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes | 11c | 996.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…b6cebacked Yes | 19c | 991.2$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 16c | 957.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 949.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…c373backed Yes | 22c | 943.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.34 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 12c | 914.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes | 11c | 899.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 896.41$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 15c | 885.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…e0d2backed Yes | 16c | 881.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 15c | 868.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 139 | 11.5%16 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…5f38backed Yes | 22c | 861$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 860.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes | 16c | 858.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 96 | 14.6%14 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.