Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b14eb27b14f709a44886018c0b325a94a4cdd3c6c6954e3a9aa21069790b536

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $296,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $108,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,659 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x72ad…f794backed Yes	0c	39,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+22%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	21,118$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.35	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	11,905$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.61	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b9d4backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6db…8b97backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	10,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.6	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	7,792$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.39	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	6,739$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	1,083	8.2%89 W · 994 L	+28.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	1c	6,202$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.27	423	19.4%82 W · 341 L	-19.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	6,164$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.73	1,035	10.5%109 W · 926 L	-32.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	5c	5,000$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	4,254$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,888$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	10c	2,801$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.16	652	21.5%140 W · 512 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	2,614$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	15c	2,537$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.11	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	5c	2,321$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.13	280	23.9%67 W · 213 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	2,297$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.6	337	22.3%75 W · 262 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	4c	2,126$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.7	181	30.9%56 W · 125 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	11c	2,056$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.64	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	5c	2,054$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.08	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	7c	2,027$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.91	118	29.7%35 W · 83 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	13c	1,600$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	5c	1,527$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.05	328	24.7%81 W · 247 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	1,463$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.12	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes	7c	1,376$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.21	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed Yes	11c	1,300$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	1,244$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	160	22.5%36 W · 124 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	3c	1,194$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,143$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.61	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	11c	1,100$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.2	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	1,100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	346	15.6%54 W · 292 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	8c	1,041$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.34	520	28.3%147 W · 373 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	17c	1,014$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	164	12.2%20 W · 144 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	17c	979.43$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.12	328	16.8%55 W · 273 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	937.74$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.45	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8634…3912backed Yes	8c	924.92$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.99	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7417…0001backed Yes	3c	917.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	13cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	856.71$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.89	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	9c	824.3$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	298	12.8%38 W · 260 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	19c	792.44$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	4c	782$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	79	27.8%22 W · 57 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes	3c	722.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	17cpaid	+407.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	687.29$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	894	17.1%153 W · 741 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	6c	653.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44f…de3abacked Yes	16c	650$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	16c	649.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	643$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf95…d76ebacked Yes	17c	623.51$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	9c	593.11$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.19	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	14c	569$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.42	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	12c	560.36$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.96	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No	80c	550.38$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.1	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed79…64b8backed Yes	15c	514.19$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes	17c	506.58$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.64	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	19c	504.19$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	17c	495.59$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.25	355	23.9%85 W · 270 L	-11.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	9c	350.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-4.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	315.92$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.18	550	75.1%413 W · 137 L	+34.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	3c	312.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	10c	311.84$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	15c	301.8$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes	4c	293.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1306…1468backed Yes	18c	277.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	5c	265$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	5c	257.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	19c	250$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc520…e202backed Yes	19c	250$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	16c	225$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	17c	220$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bae…3cd4backed Yes	19c	219.79$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.76	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	15c	213.33$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	88	11.4%10 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	18c	198.38$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cc…879cbacked Yes	18c	163.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x482d…74a3backed Yes	15c	154.23$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf68…616cbacked Yes	19c	154.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+110.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	11c	141$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes	8c	139$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	18c	139$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	9c	131.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	118	16.1%19 W · 99 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75de…98c0backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d32…76e1backed Yes	19c	110.26$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x692c…aadebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	19cpaid	+55.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa78f…1905backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d02…fd07backed Yes	16c	96.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-48%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	17c	90.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	72	20.8%15 W · 57 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	18c	78.23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	249	24.9%62 W · 187 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event