Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723553e20ad850459eb8c09c024dc97029775842354b53649cc9ab148cae4ddb

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $285,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	24,226$1,623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,622.93	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	18,296$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.75	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	18,063$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	16,913$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.21	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	13,032$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.78	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	11,648$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	14c	7,686$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092.29	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	6,639$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	5,128$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.21	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes	1c	4,743$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	2,634$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.93	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,236$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	3c	2,097$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.73	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	2,078$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.17	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	5c	1,815$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	1,600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	5c	1,598$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,541$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.04	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	3c	1,496$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.06	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes	6c	1,253$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.72	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,230$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	7c	1,217$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.39	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	1,160$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.05	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	7c	1,159$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.85	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	17c	1,124$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.3	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	8c	1,041$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.7	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…4132backed Yes	4c	1,009$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.9	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	999.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	17c	906.57$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	902.46$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	823.75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.07	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44f…de3abacked Yes	13c	789.98$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.7	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	774.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	17c	682.32$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.17	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	669.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed79…64b8backed Yes	12c	661.22$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.4	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	7c	637.81$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.91	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf429…2517backed Yes	4c	615.87$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	15c	592.46$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	3c	584$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	14c	555.02$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.36	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes	15c	501.29$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.55	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b33…b345backed Yes	5c	473.83$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	3c	448.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a8…2111backed Yes	23c	428.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	365.55$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.11	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes	9c	332.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	16c	319.97$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc520…e202backed Yes	16c	280$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d32…76e1backed Yes	16c	260.33$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf4…1ccabacked Yes	9c	231.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	5c	229.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	8c	216.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	125	43.2%54 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed No	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	9c	199.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes	6c	189.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No	76c	189.47$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.47	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Yes	13c	167.62$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	26cpaid	+80.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5cc…879cbacked Yes	18c	165.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	13c	150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	12c	147$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1306…1468backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc009…972bbacked Yes	20c	125.4$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	20c	102.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78f…1905backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa885…f00bbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1de4…9f53backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	97	46.4%45 W · 52 L	+7.2wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d4a…9b09backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482d…74a3backed Yes	16c	92.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54ac…115bbacked Yes	15c	87.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fb…554cbacked Yes	23c	85.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d1…35a8backed Yes	14c	71.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes	20c	64.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	160	13.8%22 W · 138 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9450…a00abacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc15…b1c7backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No	73c	60.02$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x911b…2529backed Yes	19c	54.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd838…a896backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d0…e8c6backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	132	59.8%79 W · 53 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event