TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6fb…554c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 50.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT8622.1%19 W · 67 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$15.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+848%+$101.76
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.54
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.9
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.8
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.29
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.37
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$37.5
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+715.4%+$135.85
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$50.76
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.