Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fab367768c3457938b8a0e3f2efcde1f6ad5fad4c018f4598ccc2e27a49ed0f

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,168,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $693,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,168,404 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	2c	147,834$3,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,616.6	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	114,273$1,958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,958.04	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes	1c	32,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	30,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	16c	19,113$3,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,056.67	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	32c	17,910$5,754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,754.25	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes	5c	16,722$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.96	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	16,599$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	13,710$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.42	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	13,183$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.75	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	28c	12,269$3,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,495.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	10,859$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	18c	10,000$1,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,778.21	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	10,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	9,813$2,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,085.35	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	77c	9,525$7,292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,232.91	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	9,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	17c	9,072$1,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,525.28	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	8,987$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.07	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	8c	8,388$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.7	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	8,352$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.5	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	21c	7,889$1,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,640.14	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	12c	7,150$841 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.42	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	7,030$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	7c	7,030$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.66	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	6,768$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.05	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	6,493$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.88	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	13c	6,097$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.05	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	6,054$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.77	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	6,020$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.83	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	5c	5,997$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.89	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	18c	5,985$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.27	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001f…9cb5backed Yes	2c	5,786$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	3c	5,391$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.17	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	26c	5,270$1,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,393.3	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	5,114$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.88	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	5c	4,484$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.05	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	22c	4,195$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.37	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	4,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,829$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	26c	3,787$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995.35	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	33c	3,755$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.84	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	35c	3,603$1,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.52	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	14c	3,409$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.37	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	25c	3,355$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.04	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	4c	3,268$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.95	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	28c	3,185$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.16	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	25c	3,184$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.78	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No	72c	3,073$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.16	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	23c	3,060$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.92	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	5c	2,890$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.08	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	12c	2,742$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.92	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	7c	2,722$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.57	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	77c	2,713$2,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$619.02	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	2,712$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.09	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e6…d6cdbacked No	76c	2,617$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.97	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	35c	2,600$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.33	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes	7c	2,548$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.32	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	2c	2,501$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.44	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	3c	2,410$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.73	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	34c	2,408$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.59	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,351$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.73	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	7c	2,344$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.16	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	70c	2,341$1,635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705.88	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes	30c	2,309$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.78	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	9c	2,256$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.3	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	2,131$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.24	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	10c	2,092$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.5	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	6c	2,086$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.08	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	79c	2,040$1,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.14	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	5c	1,975$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.31	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	1,901$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.38	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes	21c	1,898$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	2c	1,873$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	30c	1,767$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.49	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	38c	1,750$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.95	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	20c	1,706$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.64	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes	1c	1,667$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	6c	1,649$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.11	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	15c	1,620$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.75	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	21c	1,530$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.8	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	16c	1,528$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.12	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	182	18.7%34 W · 148 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	74c	1,500$1,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.97	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	10c	1,498$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.54	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	3c	1,491$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.55	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	20c	1,484$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0240…32b8backed Yes	14c	1,471$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,441$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes	9c	1,421$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.3	108	29.6%32 W · 76 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	21c	1,392$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.63	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	17c	1,308$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.48	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed No	78c	1,283$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.6	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	22c	1,241$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.78	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	21c	1,240$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.82	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	7c	1,224$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	75c	1,222$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.87	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	14c	1,204$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.79	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event