TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,921 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c24,103$494 inLost-$493.92,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes1c22,965$249 inLost-$248.6763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c14,869$30 inLost-$29.881,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost-$1412528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$101258.8%11 W · 114 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$106710.4%7 W · 60 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$107710.4%8 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c7,153$137 inLost-$136.911,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c6,214$18 inLost-$18.211,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes2c4,076$85 inLost-$84.991,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c3,953$38 inLost-$38.065535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a4…69d5backed Yes1c3,500$30 inLost-$30.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes1c3,321$38 inLost-$37.662259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes3c2,588$78 inLost-$78.4232110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes2c1,500$33 inLost-$3362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c1,424$16 inLost-$15.6679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,410$10 inLost-$10.252,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,312$15 inLost-$15.074916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367e…3cadbacked Yes1c1,237$15 inLost-$151822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes1c1,041$13 inLost-$1350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes1c1,000$14 inLost-$14.0610330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes2c969.33$19 inLost-$19.46410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c919.63$10 inLost-$10.3178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes1c747.45$11 inLost-$116216.1%10 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes4c400$16 inLost-$15.673215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e74…13ebbacked Yes6c179.8$11 inLost-$1180%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.