TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$541,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c22,427$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6899410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c22,134$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.571,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c20,780$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes1c20,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb75…33f6backed Yes1c17,852$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick15cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c17,117$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.91,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c15,500$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2512528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes0c11,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.224418.2%8 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes0c10,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351116.3%7 W · 104 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c76…2e44backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes2c9,701$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9530310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes0c8,576$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7313315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes6c7,652$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2240519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes14c7,030$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.1114413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes20c6,218$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.4654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c5,810$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.222,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,565$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.662,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c5,114$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.861,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c5,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9825211.5%29 W · 223 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes1c5,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5814912.8%19 W · 130 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c4,247$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.996097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…2894backed Yes0c4,093$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c4,042$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3782614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes4c4,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17038648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes9c3,813$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5527024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes9c3,800$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34188210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes16c3,416$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes9c2,978$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.263021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c2,875$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7521732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c2,548$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2324114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes8c2,463$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.623212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…5a02backed Yes1c2,313$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes1c2,232$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6413611.8%16 W · 120 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes1c2,210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes8c2,200$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1695717.5%10 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes16c2,153$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed Yes5c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes12c1,753$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.663713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes6c1,735$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes2c1,596$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7711729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.46915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c1,465$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes9c1,449$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.494920.4%10 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,372$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c1,336$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes1c1,292$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes10c1,280$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4857420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes13c1,270$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5833422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes12c1,226$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8831224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes3c1,155$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.351148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes6c1,147$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0832716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes17c1,141$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.072213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,126$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.634916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c1,121$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1387917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes15c1,101$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.566839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes12c1,070$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12421614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes1c1,050$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes4c1,026$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.956410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes13c1,004$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes10c998.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.528812.8%37 W · 251 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes7c900$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.632110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9290…1257backed Yes3c861.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes15c833.01$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9514427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes2c832.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes12c831.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.510015%15 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes16c818.21$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6810617%18 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes3c789.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.854513.3%6 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes7c708.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.128025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes15c660.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.571174.3%5 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed79…64b8backed Yes2c623.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.384124.4%10 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes4c621$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.345030%15 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes15c617.75$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929614.6%14 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0428…b167backed Yes2c616.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes17c602.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.515922.6%36 W · 123 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes10c542.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9511121.6%24 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes11c540.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.511325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c518.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6779711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55869.3%8 W · 78 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes15c432.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.311931.1%37 W · 82 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes15c428.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0332917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes15c410.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6323314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes10c402.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.284233.3%14 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40718.5%6 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes12c399.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes17c399.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8445715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fb…554cbacked Yes3c369.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118622.1%19 W · 67 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c343.41$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5554274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes6c305.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0319229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913224.2%32 W · 100 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes17c288.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.981520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463718.9%7 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes14c249.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511114.4%16 W · 95 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5cc…879cbacked Yes13c234.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes11c221.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256016.7%10 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3716013.8%22 W · 138 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.