Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd645500a28e255fc1f45ebc5ae111005f125b33c92500408644b55ffc13e38

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,069,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $751,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,069,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcb75…33f6backed Yes	0c	101,169$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	15cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	96,409$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.41	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…2ca7backed Yes	0c	35,067$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	28,500$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	28,179$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	0c	22,243$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.9	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5489…4ceebacked Yes	0c	18,290$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…8e4bbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	6c	13,558$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.55	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	12,695$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	10,000$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.03	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	9,838$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	8,903$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.68	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac35…2670backed Yes	0c	7,818$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	7,561$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.11	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	16c	7,030$1,122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,122.06	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	6,800$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	3c	6,789$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.56	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	6c	6,785$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.55	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	6,600$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	6,242$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.65	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	1c	5,766$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	12c	5,676$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.89	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	5,656$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.65	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	14c	4,725$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.5	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4833…74bfbacked Yes	3c	4,269$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+137.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	3c	4,232$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	7c	4,027$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.22	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	4,005$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	6c	4,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	3,760$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.8	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	2c	3,651$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.58	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked Yes	0c	3,632$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	11c	3,464$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.71	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	13c	3,340$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.62	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	3,261$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.55	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	3,250$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.73	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	8c	2,930$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.67	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	2,875$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.5	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,861$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.15	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,785$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.69	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	2,746$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.8	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	2,553$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	10c	2,527$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.85	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	2,400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	2,238$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.4	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	2,225$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	2,223$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.18	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	3c	2,192$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	14c	2,129$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.66	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	2,067$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.43	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	10c	2,030$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	2,010$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	9c	2,005$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.1	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,907$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.55	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	8c	1,900$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,882$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.53	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	3c	1,879$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes	2c	1,828$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes	1c	1,700$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	182	18.7%34 W · 148 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	3c	1,650$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	3c	1,642$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	1c	1,634$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,605$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	4c	1,564$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes	5c	1,480$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.09	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	5c	1,426$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.91	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	4c	1,415$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	20c	1,337$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.94	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,309$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.43	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	3c	1,294$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.3	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	16c	1,281$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.02	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	1c	1,281$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	1,271$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	1c	1,205$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	3c	1,188$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes	3c	1,170$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.37	108	29.6%32 W · 76 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	6c	1,163$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.48	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	2c	1,126$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes	19c	1,101$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.62	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	4c	1,087$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+152.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	12c	1,084$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.82	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes	3c	1,050$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-53%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes	6c	1,024$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.33	113	25.7%29 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…4132backed Yes	6c	1,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.12	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	9c	999.83$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.81	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	3c	999.69$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	3c	922.81$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	872.91$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.4	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes	1c	864.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	4c	861.1$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	857.96$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.11	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	3c	846.56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event