Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4244d7f37624dee36186b1ecdb72ee5e434adab0f2d50fc65041bbcb9368559e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $890,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $550,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $890,117 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	1c	75,861$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.72	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	50,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.9	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	46,896$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.43	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	23,117$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.95	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	22,118$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.35	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	19,359$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	18,634$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.46	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	18,034$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.57	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	0c	14,709$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.17	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	0c	13,726$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	1c	13,333$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.33	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	11,878$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	11,519$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	11,328$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	386	48.2%186 W · 200 L	+15.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	9,986$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.57	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	1c	9,907$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.43	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	7,501$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	0c	7,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	0c	6,474$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	1c	6,040$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.43	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	1c	5,332$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.88	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	5,276$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,101$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	5,071$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	0c	5,020$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes	0c	4,960$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	4,933$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.71	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	0c	4,800$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	1c	4,142$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	4,108$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,283$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	3,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	2,236$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,164$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	2c	2,038$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.87	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	1c	2,026$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,982$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff60…bb86backed Yes	1c	1,870$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,650$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5619…9446backed Yes	1c	1,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4577…1b15backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,466$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	1c	1,345$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes	1c	1,315$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	1c	1,268$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	1,169$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b25…93ccbacked Yes	1c	1,158$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes	2c	1,147$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,111$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	1,056$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event