Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1efac3243740b140ecab201f182415e53bd997ae31a9dc82dd9f11dd800c7e1d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $461,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,790 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfdf4…1c91backed Yes	0c	53,900$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.35	23	0%0 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	24,000$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	20,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…2894backed Yes	0c	18,611$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb75…33f6backed Yes	0c	16,613$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	15cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	0c	15,052$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	136	11.8%16 W · 120 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,774$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.73	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	10,457$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.62	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	10,000$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	8,309$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,003.27	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	8,137$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856.35	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed Yes	4c	7,920$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.52	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	9c	7,111$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.23	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	13c	4,875$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.07	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	4,749$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.4	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	4,350$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.32	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	4,009$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.87	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf0…5a02backed Yes	0c	3,980$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	1c	3,960$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	3,230$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.05	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	5c	3,099$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.37	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	15c	3,024$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.2	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	2,895$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.93	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	11c	2,561$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.49	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	2,504$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.4	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	7c	2,500$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	2,400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.48	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	2,302$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	16c	2,040$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.94	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	386	48.2%186 W · 200 L	+15.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes	6c	1,819$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.12	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	1,780$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.74	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	10c	1,634$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.33	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	12c	1,570$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.41	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x897d…7ed4backed Yes	1c	1,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	1,483$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.45	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	14c	1,446$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	1,392$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.98	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	11c	1,331$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.39	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,321$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.03	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	9c	1,168$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.92	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes	12c	1,100$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.28	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes	4c	1,100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.59	113	25.7%29 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes	10c	1,053$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	9c	1,022$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	6c	999.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	9c	997.16$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	16c	989.26$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	16c	965.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	954.61$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.36	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	911.37$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.93	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	16c	899.97$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	117	4.3%5 W · 112 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	11c	889.41$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.73	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	17c	807.3$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.16	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	14c	780.07$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.35	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bae…3cd4backed Yes	19c	777.84$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	739$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	77	27.3%21 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	664.98$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	12c	638.97$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.67	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes	17c	632.29$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	6c	620.75$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	50	30%15 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	10c	594.47$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.37	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	17c	578.15$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.79	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	17c	525.04$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	8c	443.06$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	15c	413.47$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.02	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cc…879cbacked Yes	13c	390.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d02…fd07backed Yes	17c	381.53$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.43	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-48%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	370.5$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.1	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes	14c	361.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	184	19%35 W · 149 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf4…1ccabacked Yes	16c	360.23$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes	10c	299.4$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	12c	291.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	17c	283.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	15c	274$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.57	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	9c	264.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	7c	250$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf057…a931backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb470…46f1backed Yes	13c	242.62$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	14c	225$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fc…1ab9backed Yes	10c	222.08$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes	8c	221.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	14c	216.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	125	43.2%54 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9877…43fdbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	17c	199.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes	14c	180.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f39…3c00backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa4…199ebacked Yes	12c	176.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	16c	170$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event