Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc15e9a7caf48d501270f72b8b6157051624f2a87e2a693ab6bc027c36d2270

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,423,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,118,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,423,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 806 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	0c	118,279$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.69	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	9c	69,101$6,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,534.95	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	50,232$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.23	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	26c	40,257$10,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,476.79	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	30c	37,932$11,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,193.63	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	16c	33,926$5,351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,350.74	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	52c	22,011$11,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,487.09	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	20,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	44c	15,198$6,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,658.06	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Yes	0c	15,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	19c	14,697$2,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,738.43	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	17c	13,847$2,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,348.82	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	0c	13,496$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.51	136	11.8%16 W · 120 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	70c	13,144$9,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,185.9	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	51c	12,341$6,264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,076.86	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ec…7ef0backed Yes	0c	12,185$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	3c	10,891$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.11	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	10,169$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.67	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	10,043$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	43c	9,407$4,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,035.03	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	64c	9,074$5,771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,303.41	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	8,544$1,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,770.36	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No	26c	8,494$2,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,259.03	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	37c	8,046$2,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,056.28	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	8,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bc…8613backed Yes	0c	7,508$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	41c	7,226$2,974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,974.19	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ea…62c5backed Yes	44c	7,197$3,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,155.35	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.18per pick	29cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	47c	6,707$3,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,140.21	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	55c	6,199$3,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,383.33	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	31c	6,039$1,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,894.2	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	28c	5,800$1,613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,613.48	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	5,759$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	29c	5,498$1,574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,923.4	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes	0c	5,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	14cpaid	+119.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	55c	4,543$2,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,053.56	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No	76c	4,510$3,445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,064.95	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed No	46c	4,507$2,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,435.72	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	33c	4,338$1,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.13	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	3c	4,229$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.02	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	4,200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	64c	4,032$2,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,471.17	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x280f…1963backed No	77c	3,961$3,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$928.78	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	10c	3,880$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.51	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	18c	3,827$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.29	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No	66c	3,747$2,487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,260.68	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	61c	3,584$2,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,413.89	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes	26c	3,450$906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$906.35	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+97.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	43c	3,375$1,436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,938.81	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	22c	3,363$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	16c	3,353$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.72	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	24c	3,256$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.45	211	22.3%47 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	38c	3,239$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245.06	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	43c	3,120$1,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,348.88	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes	30c	3,114$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.94	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	19c	3,113$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.84	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	48c	3,055$1,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,475.91	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	47c	3,034$1,437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,437.35	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	13c	3,013$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.04	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9786…c5bfbacked Yes	77c	2,985$2,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,301.45	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc1…b863backed No	56c	2,904$1,623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,280.92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,754$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.01	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes	64c	2,724$1,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750.81	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5359…6b35backed Yes	32c	2,707$868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.01	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes	77c	2,707$2,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,073.98	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	31c	2,579$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.36	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	47c	2,549$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.16	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	63c	2,514$1,587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,586.57	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes	55c	2,505$1,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,365.81	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	44c	2,337$1,028 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,309.05	308	54.9%169 W · 139 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No	54c	2,312$1,246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065.77	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	49c	2,260$1,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.25	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	43c	2,217$953 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,264.3	217	57.6%125 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	3c	2,211$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.16	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	2,180$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.36	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	53c	2,113$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.64	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	17c	2,093$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.69	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	2,041$1,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.51	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	63c	2,040$1,291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.21	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	46c	2,017$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.75	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	33c	2,005$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.84	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	70c	2,000$1,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,390.4	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	2,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No	47c	1,987$924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,062.97	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	12c	1,980$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.06	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	40c	1,968$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.12	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes	19c	1,966$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.99	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No	57c	1,926$1,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$835.27	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	39c	1,880$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.82	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes	29c	1,871$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.42	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	45c	1,864$830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,033.84	167	50.3%84 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	78c	1,831$1,429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.82	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No	42c	1,789$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045.6	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	1,778$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.87	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	23c	1,769$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes	5c	1,744$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.78	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	18c	1,716$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.96	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	63c	1,716$1,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.25	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event