TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$437,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$426,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes4c75,032$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.4363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes6c17,860$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.8531624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes33c14,878$4,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,871.568812.5%11 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2a…8a31backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No74c8,411$6,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.839057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes32c8,038$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.1257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes15c7,087$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.915136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c6,936$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.2840719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes12c6,746$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.071,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No70c5,069$3,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.845944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes16c4,954$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.4953522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No76c4,726$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.5622023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes22c4,319$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.9923212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No67c4,076$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.749233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes51c4,045$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.948321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes8c3,716$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.2230317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes25c3,547$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.3314829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c6…24cfbacked No53c2,975$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes42c2,951$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.8856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes16c2,782$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.9219215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed Yes7c2,739$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes58c2,682$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.9339723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes60c2,668$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.535024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes26c2,606$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.0515929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes19c2,596$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.9828016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes10c2,589$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24714923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes17c2,426$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.261,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c2,403$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.6930955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No56c2,255$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.6717723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes7c2,194$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.528534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes35c2,096$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.2257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes1c2,046$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.374030%12 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ce…0095backed Yes39c2,031$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes6c1,833$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.827224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes45c1,802$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.637920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed No70c1,722$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.3534427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes61c1,712$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.2431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes17c1,686$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5443719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes23c1,661$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes19c1,530$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3213215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4809348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No69c1,447$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.014146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes16c1,396$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.396421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No53c1,335$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.835567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes37c1,329$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0827820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes21c1,323$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.473141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes50c1,284$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.417432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked No79c1,262$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.2913235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed No58c1,224$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.562250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes25c1,168$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.091,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked No77c1,168$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.3614332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c1,123$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2532716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes7c1,084$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.452176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes7c1,079$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.329035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c1,071$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8624155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No69c1,033$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.747439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes28c1,029$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6621429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes72c1,000$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.170616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19023019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes64c938.31$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes13c913.72$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1915221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes11c913.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5951410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes14c894.15$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5216023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes26c890.79$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No79c885.44$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0327647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes7c845.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7612216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d63…1b7fbacked No77c840.21$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.212462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c836.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.012,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c815.24$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.138848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes22c778.81$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17063821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes20c698.86$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9920432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No74c678.75$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17616941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes46c673.1$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.556630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes25c670.34$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3412543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes5c666.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+84.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes29c648.81$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c609.98$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.998532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c574.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9322926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes19c564.79$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10914928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes8c530.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510542.9%45 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011417.5%20 W · 94 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes17c524.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.643815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes32c522.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.516823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes32c509.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16523222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes56c500$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.363138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes53c499.98$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9921233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes5c492.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.356033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No42c468.79$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.922160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7e…d5bcbacked Yes52c465.51$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e7…1c56backed Yes22c463.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes42c455.52$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c433.08$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.922,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes14c419.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Yes14c417.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No38c411.34$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1915455.2%85 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes8c410.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes13c401.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0626418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7225617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5618419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.