TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes27c7,651$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.8514427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes2c6,901$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.1563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No71c4,672$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37013844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes36c4,605$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.228321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes41c3,030$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.9553522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c2,623$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6540719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes3c2,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6128016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes16c1,744$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.387122.5%16 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c1,663$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.359057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes28c1,591$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.617920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes12c1,472$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7123212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes20c1,300$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.531,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes29c1,235$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4519930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes27c1,150$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes13c1,002$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26057222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c979.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.322,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c949.68$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.3338848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes16c765.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes41c702$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No66c677$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3770616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No68c629.98$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.796254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed Yes20c599.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1177528%21 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes29c544.62$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9410730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes7c529$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.865920.3%12 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes2c510.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.227224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes32c500$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.026026.7%16 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c496.75$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c477.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.032,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No66c468.8$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.422160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c456.25$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9816750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7812…4bcdbacked Yes29c452.81$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.94042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes5c426.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7315221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c404.99$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.615455.2%85 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes11c403.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.916033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92b…e0c9backed No71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161553.3%8 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick75cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes3c364.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4316023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No62c335.23$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.847045.7%32 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes26c308.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805829.3%17 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8412429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb4d…d388backed Yes35c285.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes17c285$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes17c277.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5329227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No74c277$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c268.1$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.877265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18fe…d8cbbacked Yes34c266.72$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ab…5c6cbacked Yes30c257.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.282548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes26c241.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7232917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c219.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.214864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes32c207.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2516741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked No68c199.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4920432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes15c191.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7412642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c186.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes18c182.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.181,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes32c170.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.211729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd28…710dbacked No61c163$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.623951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2810052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c142$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9511643.1%50 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes28c136.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1110339.8%41 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506838.2%26 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c127$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3324155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes21c126.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes35c123$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0519141.4%79 W · 112 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3042…130cbacked Yes31c121.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae3…6c99backed Yes40c120.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.921857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No71c117$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3911633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c113.92$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.699619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b10…523bbacked Yes17c109.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No68c107.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9711847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes15c107$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7310438.5%40 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2728723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x13e7…c338backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c0…5ca2backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ec…9659backed No70c93.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.841464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No65c93.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311637.1%43 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aab…9244backed Yes26c90.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c90$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.330955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc160…386bbacked Yes39c87.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.221145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes38c87.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7615928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes40c74.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef9…4665backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95719.3%11 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes20c69.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7422227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c68.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.115766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes45c67.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No67c66.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2222770.9%161 W · 66 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes35c64.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.294311.6%5 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x660b…e5acbacked Yes33c62.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.282714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44f…de3abacked Yes33c59.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccea…1c48backed Yes35c57.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed No61c57.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.021662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes27c56.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2719933.2%66 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5507…529bbacked No75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.