Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8116bf0ccc78f6b8f346e73733f07ab5c27608ca319f6992bbabf376280d7931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 27c | 7,651$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.85 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 6,901$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.15 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 71c | 4,672$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 36c | 4,605$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.22 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 41c | 3,030$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.95 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,623$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.65 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,744$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.38 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 1,663$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.35 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 28c | 1,591$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.61 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,472$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.53 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 29c | 1,235$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.45 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,150$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.07 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 1,002$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 979.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 949.68$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.33 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 765.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 41c | 702$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 66c | 677$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.37 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 68c | 629.98$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.79 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…8318backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 29c | 544.62$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 7c | 529$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 2c | 510.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes | 32c | 500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.02 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 14c | 496.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 477.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 66c | 468.8$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.4 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 456.25$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked Yes | 29c | 452.81$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 5c | 426.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 404.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 11c | 403.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…e0c9backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 75cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 3c | 364.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 62c | 335.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 26c | 308.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…d388backed Yes | 35c | 285.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 17c | 285$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 17c | 277.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 74c | 277$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 268.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…d8cbbacked Yes | 34c | 266.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…5c6cbacked Yes | 30c | 257.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 26c | 241.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 219.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 32c | 207.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 68c | 199.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 15c | 191.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 186.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 18c | 182.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 32c | 170.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…710dbacked No | 61c | 163$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 142$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 28c | 136.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 21c | 126.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3042…130cbacked Yes | 31c | 121.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 120.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 113.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 107.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13e7…c338backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…5ca2backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…9659backed No | 70c | 93.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 93.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…9244backed Yes | 26c | 90.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…386bbacked Yes | 39c | 87.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 38c | 87.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 40c | 74.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…4665backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 68.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 45c | 67.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 66.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 35c | 64.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 33c | 62.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…de3abacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…1c48backed Yes | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed No | 61c | 57.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 27c | 56.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5507…529bbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.