Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473783b11a78ba2acaa3efbe171e48f151a70bea17079eeedae90b837f9ce1f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 11,228$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 8,110$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,557$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 4,728$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 1c | 2,566$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,856$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 7c | 1,478$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,468$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…acf2backed Yes | 8c | 1,137$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 12c | 995.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 585.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 18c | 581.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 534.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 522.32$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 516.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 509.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…148cbacked Yes | 2c | 458.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 354.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 8c | 345$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 16c | 308.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 9c | 266.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 217.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…554cbacked Yes | 12c | 205.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 17c | 204.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 15c | 178.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 163.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 22c | 140.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 122.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 12c | 110.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 22c | 100.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 77.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 76cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…d5ccbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.