Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa405b92b5e4d1d436333cebc727b12daa2f8009ef43c7b953309c2da9d649c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 73c | 12,832$9,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,407.01 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 40c | 8,467$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.5 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 7,904$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.84 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 6,468$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 19c | 5,825$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.41 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,477$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.86 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 28c | 4,076$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.35 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 3,363$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.4 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 69c | 3,000$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.17 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,991$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.7 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 75c | 2,733$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.72 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3367…e5dcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,616$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,270$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.91 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 6c | 2,258$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 16c | 2,093$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.14 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,083$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,903$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.21 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,775$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.79 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 51c | 1,676$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.19 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 7c | 1,670$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,640$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.8 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,548$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 1,504$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.47 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,422$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,327$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 14c | 1,320$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,262$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,199$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 54c | 1,058$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.57 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 9c | 1,011$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…79d8backed Yes | 14c | 976.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 924.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 871.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 869.96$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.8 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 9c | 861.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 29c | 749.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.65 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 713.32$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 708.49$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.55 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes | 14c | 703.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 9c | 650$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 55c | 636$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 51c | 624.54$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 3c | 621.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 621.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 603.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…d422backed Yes | 15c | 599.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 49c | 568.12$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 71c | 504.11$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 493$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 51c | 455.56$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 430.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 13c | 411$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 403.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8554…c2bbbacked Yes | 26c | 384$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked No | 78c | 382$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 377.79$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 42c | 373.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…44e5backed Yes | 6c | 351.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 40c | 346.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed No | 58c | 344.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 18c | 330.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 17c | 330$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 13c | 326.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 20c | 316.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 308.84$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes | 52c | 305.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 8c | 304.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 49c | 303.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes | 4c | 300.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…4285backed Yes | 20c | 289.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 52c | 281.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…cdb2backed Yes | 18c | 272.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed No | 50c | 270.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 11c | 265.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 4c | 264.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 50c | 257$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 50c | 239$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 237.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 15c | 237.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 224.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…1c56backed Yes | 45c | 221.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 58c | 221.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 221.53$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 10c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a7…718ebacked Yes | 20c | 209.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 201.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 20c | 200.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…5610backed Yes | 15c | 198.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1f91backed Yes | 51c | 197.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 29c | 189.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…232dbacked Yes | 12c | 189.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b1…b44abacked Yes | 27c | 188.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.