TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,474 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No73c12,832$9,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.0156429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes40c8,467$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.58321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes13c7,904$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.8463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes8c6,468$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6475122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes19c5,825$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.4163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c4,477$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.8640719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes28c4,076$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.3539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c3,363$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No69c3,000$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.1770616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes13c2,991$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No75c2,733$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.7268615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3367…e5dcbacked Yes8c2,616$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes17c2,270$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9110521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes6c2,258$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3151410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes16c2,093$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes14c2,083$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.71,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c1,903$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes19c1,775$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.7918726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes4c1,700$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8756817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes51c1,676$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.1953522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes7c1,670$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8216023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes32c1,640$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.828016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,548$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.42,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes16c1,504$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4743719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes7c1,422$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1322325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c1,327$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.591,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes14c1,320$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.441,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes5c1,262$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.914928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c1,199$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5921732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No54c1,058$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5714751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes9c1,011$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9423222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes14c976.5$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1396124.6%15 W · 46 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes3c924.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3327417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes10c871.55$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.89128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No73c869.96$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.822160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes9c861.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5521222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes29c749.96$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.651,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c713.32$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4951845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes48c708.49$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.552,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes14c703.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No80c700$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14020226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes9c650$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.831242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No55c636$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.25567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes51c624.54$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes3c621.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c621.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c603.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.876030%18 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7c…d422backed Yes15c599.24$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.886547.7%31 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes49c568.12$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9721034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No71c504.11$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9246137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes7c500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007413.5%10 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c493$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7730955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes51c455.56$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes4c430.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes13c411$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6533231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes11c403.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4322718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed Yes6c400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237820.5%16 W · 62 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8554…c2bbbacked Yes26c384$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked No78c382$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.327133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No78c377.79$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.614451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes42c373.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2150828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4d…44e5backed Yes6c351.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes40c346.93$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.314037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed No58c344.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8615932.7%52 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes18c330.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1511224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes17c330$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.883342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes13c326.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.423019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes20c316.43$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1432917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No71c308.84$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8127647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes52c305.85$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604723.4%11 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes8c304.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.433134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac6…0465backed Yes49c303.21$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes4c300.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes39c300$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11820723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadc…4285backed Yes20c289.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.819728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No52c281.86$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0095…cdb2backed Yes18c272.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed No50c270.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3811624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes11c265.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes4c264.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.549018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes50c257$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9727820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes50c239$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.699226.1%24 W · 68 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c237.57$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.937265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes15c237.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.566832.4%22 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No63c224.01$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.448148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e7…1c56backed Yes45c221.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No58c221.85$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.927042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c221.53$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6718358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes10c210$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75719.3%11 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a7…718ebacked Yes20c209.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.92326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes21c201.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.334039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes20c200.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8e…5610backed Yes15c198.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5668…1f91backed Yes51c197.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes29c189.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.651,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9019…232dbacked Yes12c189.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b1…b44abacked Yes27c188.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.