Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c89fc956afb17e5816f72d0f3e26da44ae7a68b02258aa7e5fe37c29f152ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 15,598$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.54 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 3c | 8,372$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,327$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.77 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 48c | 5,200$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes | 33c | 4,348$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.99 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 4,347$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.03 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes | 57c | 4,296$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.14 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,108$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,773$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,570$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 54c | 2,422$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.67 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 48c | 2,096$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.21 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 8c | 2,026$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 41c | 2,020$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.56 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 57c | 1,761$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…320ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,744$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,713$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,712$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 15c | 1,555$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.03 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,529$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +747.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…6ffabacked Yes | 1c | 1,234$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 49c | 1,001$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.95 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed No | 48c | 997.74$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.03 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 52c | 969.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed No | 61c | 957.79$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 66c | 951.34$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.43 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 933.15$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.34 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 927.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 44c | 906.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked No | 43c | 900$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 891.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3042…130cbacked Yes | 55c | 817.92$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 31c | 804.9$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.56 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…e2afbacked No | 46c | 801.94$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 38c | 791.87$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.56 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0f33backed Yes | 66c | 782.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 775.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes | 2c | 774.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 4c | 709.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 67c | 700$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 21c | 700$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 38c | 697.81$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 691.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 41c | 674$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.35 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 669.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…3173backed Yes | 3c | 668.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 46c | 659.08$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.52 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 67c | 633.42$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.68 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 39c | 622.42$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.35 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 11c | 575.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 9c | 568.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 8c | 565.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 6c | 559$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…8ae1backed No | 71c | 533$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 5c | 509.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 56c | 487.29$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.25 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 2c | 464.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 23c | 463.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 45c | 453.56$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.92 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 45c | 447.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 394.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 60c | 374.87$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 54c | 364.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed Yes | 46c | 349.93$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 48c | 347$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 6c | 321.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 50c | 300$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…fd87backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +357.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 47c | 299.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…388abacked Yes | 56c | 299.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 63c | 293.11$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 51c | 291.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 44c | 291.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 4c | 290.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 287.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…18d2backed Yes | 57c | 285$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…14fdbacked Yes | 59c | 284.31$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 48c | 259.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 56c | 256.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 5c | 253.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 43c | 234.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 53c | 220.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 46c | 215.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 215$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 212$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed No | 50c | 209.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…8fccbacked Yes | 49c | 204.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…e06abacked Yes | 52c | 200.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…95ddbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…76e1backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…a1efbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.