Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75ff33bf9c035775cba7fa720407544a493e6c4434ceb2f6303a099c718e3c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $412,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 0c | 55,826$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 35,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.02 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 20,935$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.5 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 12,061$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.39 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 10,509$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed Yes | 9c | 6,043$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 5,858$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 4,612$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,586$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.06 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,264$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 6c | 4,222$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.57 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 4,077$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 3,926$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 6c | 3,885$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,331$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,729$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed Yes | 4c | 2,694$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 2,673$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,642$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e0b6backed Yes | 19c | 2,390$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes | 17c | 2,348$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.03 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…11f8backed Yes | 5c | 2,305$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,185$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 2,156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 12c | 2,098$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,997$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,817$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 10c | 1,810$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,691$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,502$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.06 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 4c | 1,376$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 3c | 1,338$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 3c | 1,212$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 1,190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 26c | 1,163$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…966abacked Yes | 4c | 1,159$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289f…fe7dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,108$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 2c | 1,080$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,066$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,052$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…4dcabacked Yes | 3c | 983.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 7c | 976.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…3173backed Yes | 5c | 964.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 951.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 12c | 929.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0f33backed Yes | 22c | 925$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 6c | 921.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 903.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 899.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 18c | 893.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 839.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 4c | 815.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 4c | 813.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 92 | 32.6%30 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 11c | 799.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 16c | 799.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 21c | 799.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 13c | 799.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 4c | 726.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 7c | 711.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7522…df3cbacked Yes | 13c | 653.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 9c | 651.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 4c | 643.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 624.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 598.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…fe98backed Yes | 3c | 561.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…9cfdbacked Yes | 4c | 535$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 3c | 523.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 22c | 500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36db…aa5bbacked Yes | 12c | 494.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…653bbacked Yes | 17c | 463.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 6c | 459$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 419.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 3c | 406.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…8318backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 78c | 399.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 8c | 396.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes | 4c | 391.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…ee25backed Yes | 6c | 390.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…723dbacked Yes | 20c | 365.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 364.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 13c | 352.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.