Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97c8ce47abb9a092118f546dd6ab2ba236feca1b29347cf5ab4d0193a6bc4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 12,405$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 10,724$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.66 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 16c | 7,515$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.67 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,487$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 22c | 5,866$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.5 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 25c | 5,748$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.5 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 13c | 5,547$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.8 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 20c | 5,505$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.36 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 5,453$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.96 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,363$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 5,319$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.91 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 33c | 5,133$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.82 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,085$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.87 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.83 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 12c | 4,976$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.91 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,900$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.92 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 4,137$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.24 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,118$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.68 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 4,025$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.84 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 3c | 3,742$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 79c | 3,399$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.28 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 30c | 3,200$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.02 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,883$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.71 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 77c | 2,775$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.16 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 73c | 2,722$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.22 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 13c | 2,572$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.93 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 2,195$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 14c | 2,150$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.68 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,119$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.44 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 2,076$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.39 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 2,058$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 63c | 2,049$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.02 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,617$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…3348backed No | 59c | 1,601$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…95ebbacked No | 75c | 1,599$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.97 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…e0b6backed Yes | 9c | 1,594$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…e5edbacked Yes | 37c | 1,587$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,552$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.67 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 12c | 1,455$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,308$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,229$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 1,227$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.31 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 45c | 1,121$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 76c | 1,109$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.81 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,091$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 32c | 1,059$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.17 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…14fdbacked No | 74c | 990.83$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 18c | 989.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 42c | 979.05$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.46 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 20c | 915$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…356abacked Yes | 55c | 902.04$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 28c | 891.85$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.53 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 69c | 875.87$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.87 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 41c | 849.51$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 15c | 843.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 809.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 23c | 808.73$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes | 34c | 744.09$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.3 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 70c | 739.08$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…11f8backed Yes | 18c | 733.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…03c7backed Yes | 22c | 711.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 710.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…1780backed Yes | 34c | 707.22$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.78 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 10c | 704.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 33c | 700.44$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 17c | 699.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 31c | 674.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 43c | 647.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.49 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 57c | 613.7$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.19 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 26c | 612.26$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 579.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes | 21c | 569.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 19c | 568.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes | 4c | 568.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 42c | 566.78$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.51 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 24c | 551.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 10c | 521.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 517.32$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.59 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 32c | 487.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 48c | 487$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 35c | 470.49$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 463.43$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.02 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 25c | 462.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 450$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 52c | 449.87$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…084ebacked Yes | 10c | 449.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 79c | 447.32$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 12c | 429.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 60c | 418.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 407.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 69c | 404.12$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 20c | 400.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 24c | 398.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.